Ethnicity-specific blood pressure thresholds based on cardiovascular and renal complications: a prospective study in the UK Biobank

Background: The appropriateness of hypertension thresholds for triggering action to prevent cardiovascular and renal complications among non-White populations in the UK is subject to question. Our objective was to establish ethnicity-specific systolic blood pressure (SBP) cutoffs for ethnic minority populations and assess the efficacy of these ethnicity-specific cutoffs in predicting adverse outcomes.

Methods: We analyzed data from UK Biobank, which included 444,418 participants from White, South Asian, Black Caribbean, and Black African populations with no history of cardiorenal complications. We fitted Poisson regression models with continuous SBP and ethnic groups, using Whites as the referent category, for the composite outcome of atherosclerotic cardiovascular disease, heart failure, and chronic kidney disease. We determined ethnicity-specific thresholds equivalent to the risks observed in Whites at SBP levels of 120, 130, and 140 mm Hg. We adjusted models for clinical characteristics, sociodemographic factors, and behavioral factors. The performance of ethnicity-specific thresholds for predicting adverse outcomes and associated population-attributable fraction (PAF) was assessed in ethnic minority groups.

Results: After a median follow-up of 12.5 years (interquartile range, 11.7-13.2), 32,662 (7.4%) participants had incident composite outcomes. At any given SBP, the predicted incidence rate of the composite outcome was the highest for South Asians, followed by White, Black Caribbean, and Black African. For an equivalent risk of outcomes observed in the White population at an SBP level of 140 mm Hg, the SBP threshold was lower for South Asians (123 mm Hg) and higher for Black Caribbean (156 mm Hg) and Black African (165 mm Hg). Furthermore, hypertension defined by ethnicity-specific thresholds was a stronger predictor and resulted in a larger PAF for composite outcomes in South Asians (21.5% [95% CI, 2.4,36.9] vs. 11.3% [95% CI, 2.6,19.1]) and Black Africans (7.1% [95% CI, 0.2,14.0] vs. 5.7 [95% CI, -16.2,23.5]) compared to hypertension defined by guideline-recommended thresholds.

Conclusions: Guideline-recommended blood pressure thresholds may overestimate risks for the Black population and underestimate risks for South Asians. Using ethnicity-specific SBP thresholds may improve risk estimation and optimize hypertension management toward the goal of eliminating ethnic disparities in cardiorenal complications.