Implementation of a Prospective Index-Cluster Sampling Strategy for the Detection of Presymptomatic Viral Respiratory Infection in Undergraduate Students

Background: Index-cluster studies may help characterize the spread of communicable infections in the presymptomatic state. We describe a prospective index-cluster sampling strategy (ICSS) to detect presymptomatic respiratory viral illness and its implementation in a college population.

Methods: We enrolled an annual cohort of first-year undergraduates who completed daily electronic symptom diaries to identify index cases (ICs) with respiratory illness. Investigators then selected 5-10 potentially exposed, asymptomatic close contacts (CCs) who were geographically co-located to follow for infections. Symptoms and nasopharyngeal samples were collected for 5 days. Logistic regression model-based predictions for proportions of self-reported illness were compared graphically for the whole cohort sampling group and the CC group.

Results: We enrolled 1379 participants between 2009 and 2015, including 288 ICs and 882 CCs. The median number of CCs per IC was 6 (interquartile range, 3-8). Among the 882 CCs, 111 (13%) developed acute respiratory illnesses. Viral etiology testing in 246 ICs (85%) and 719 CCs (82%) identified a pathogen in 57% of ICs and 15% of CCs. Among those with detectable virus, rhinovirus was the most common (IC: 18%; CC: 6%) followed by coxsackievirus/echovirus (IC: 11%; CC: 4%). Among 106 CCs with a detected virus, only 18% had the same virus as their associated IC. Graphically, CCs did not have a higher frequency of self-reported illness relative to the whole cohort sampling group.

Conclusions: Establishing clusters by geographic proximity did not enrich for cases of viral transmission, suggesting that ICSS may be a less effective strategy to detect spread of respiratory infection.