Correlates of protection and determinants of SARS-CoV-2 breakthrough infections 1 year after third dose vaccination

Background: The emergence of new SARS-CoV-2 variants and the waning of immunity raise concerns about vaccine effectiveness and protection against COVID-19. While antibody response has been shown to correlate with the risk of infection with the original variant and earlier variants of concern, the effectiveness of antibody-mediated protection against Omicron and the factors associated with protection remain uncertain.

Methods: We evaluated antibody responses to SARS-CoV-2 spike (S) and nucleocapsid (N) antigens from Wuhan and variants of concern by Luminex and their role in preventing breakthrough infections 1 year after a third dose of mRNA vaccination, in a cohort of health care workers followed since the pandemic onset in Spain (N = 393). Data were analyzed in relation to COVID-19 history, demographic factors, comorbidities, vaccine doses, brand, and adverse events.

Results: Higher levels of anti-S IgG and IgA to Wuhan, Delta, and Omicron were associated with protection against vaccine breakthroughs (IgG against Omicron S antigen HR, 0.06, 95%CI, 0.26-0.01). Previous SARS-CoV-2 infection was positively associated with antibody levels and protection against breakthroughs, and a longer time since last infection was associated with lower protection. In addition, priming with BNT162b2 followed by mRNA-1273 booster was associated with higher antibody responses than homologous mRNA-1273 vaccination.

Conclusions: Data show that IgG and IgA induced by vaccines against the original strain or by hybrid immunization are valid correlates of protection against Omicron BA.1 despite immune escape and support the benefits of heterologous vaccination regimens to enhance antibodies and the prioritization of booster vaccination in individuals without recent infections.