Clinical trajectories preceding incident dementia up to 15 years before diagnosis: a large prospective cohort study

Background: Dementia has a long prodromal stage with various pathophysiological manifestations; however, the progression of pre-diagnostic changes remains unclear. We aimed to determine the evolutional trajectories of multiple-domain clinical assessments and health conditions up to 15 years before the diagnosis of dementia.

Methods: Data was extracted from the UK-Biobank, a longitudinal cohort that recruited over 500,000 participants from March 2006 to October 2010. Each demented subject was matched with 10 healthy controls. We performed logistic regressions on 400 predictors covering a comprehensive range of clinical assessments or health conditions. Their evolutional trajectories were quantified using adjusted odds ratios (ORs) and FDR-corrected p-values under consecutive timeframes preceding the diagnosis of dementia.

Findings: During a median follow-up of 13.7 [Interquartile range, IQR 12.9-14.2] years until July 2022, 7620 subjects were diagnosed with dementia. In general, upon approaching the diagnosis, demented subjects witnessed worse functional assessments and a higher prevalence of health conditions. Associations up to 15 years preceding the diagnosis comprised declined physical strength (hand grip strength, OR 0.65 [0.63-0.67]), lung dysfunction (peak expiratory flow, OR 0.78 [0.76-0.81]) and kidney dysfunction (cystatin C, OR 1.13 [1.11-1.16]), comorbidities of coronary heart disease (OR 1.78 [1.67-1.91]), stroke (OR 2.34 [2.1-1.37]), diabetes (OR 2.03 [1.89-2.18]) and a series of mental disorders. Cognitive functions in multiple tests also demonstrate decline over a decade before the diagnosis. Inadequate activity (3-5 year, overall time of activity, OR 0.82 [0.73-0.92]), drowsiness (3-5 year, sleep duration, OR 1.13 [1.04-1.24]) and weight loss (0-5 year, weight, OR 0.9 [0.83-0.98]) only exhibited associations within five years before the diagnosis. In addition, serum biomarkers of enriched endocrine, dysregulations of ketones, deficiency of brand-chain amino acids and polyunsaturated fatty acids were found in a similar prodromal time window and can be witnessed as the last pre-symptomatic conditions before the diagnosis.

Interpretation: Our findings present a comprehensive temporal-diagnostic landscape preceding incident dementia, which could improve selection for preventive and early disease-modifying treatment trials.