A machine learning radiomics based on enhanced computed tomography to predict neoadjuvant immunotherapy for resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma

Background: Patients with resectable esophageal squamous cell carcinoma (ESCC) receiving neoadjuvant immunotherapy (NIT) display variable treatment responses. The purpose of this study is to establish and validate a radiomics based on enhanced computed tomography (CT) and combined with clinical data to predict the major pathological response to NIT in ESCC patients.

Methods: This retrospective study included 82 ESCC patients who were randomly divided into the training group (n = 57) and the validation group (n = 25). Radiomic features were derived from the tumor region in enhanced CT images obtained before treatment. After feature reduction and screening, radiomics was established. Logistic regression analysis was conducted to select clinical variables. The predictive model integrating radiomics and clinical data was constructed and presented as a nomogram. Area under curve (AUC) was applied to evaluate the predictive ability of the models, and decision curve analysis (DCA) and calibration curves were performed to test the application of the models.

Results: One clinical data (radiotherapy) and 10 radiomic features were identified and applied for the predictive model. The radiomics integrated with clinical data could achieve excellent predictive performance, with AUC values of 0.93 (95% CI 0.87-0.99) and 0.85 (95% CI 0.69-1.00) in the training group and the validation group, respectively. DCA and calibration curves demonstrated a good clinical feasibility and utility of this model.

Conclusion: Enhanced CT image-based radiomics could predict the response of ESCC patients to NIT with high accuracy and robustness. The developed predictive model offers a valuable tool for assessing treatment efficacy prior to initiating therapy, thus providing individualized treatment regimens for patients.