Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure

Weston Anderson; Shraddhanand Shukla; Jim Verdin; Andrew Hoell; Christina Justice; Brian Barker; Kimberly Slinski; Nathan Lenssen; Jiale Lou; Benjamin I Cook; Amy McNally

doi:10.1038/s41467-024-51555-8

Preseason maize and wheat yield forecasts for early warning of crop failure

Nat Commun. 2024 Aug 23;15(1):7262. doi: 10.1038/s41467-024-51555-8.

Authors

Weston Anderson^{1

2}, Shraddhanand Shukla³, Jim Verdin⁴, Andrew Hoell⁵, Christina Justice⁶, Brian Barker⁶, Kimberly Slinski^{6

7}, Nathan Lenssen^{8

9}, Jiale Lou¹⁰, Benjamin I Cook^{11

12}, Amy McNally⁷

Affiliations

¹ Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA. [email protected].
² NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA. [email protected].
³ Climate Hazards Center, University of California-Santa Barbara, Santa Barbara, CA, USA.
⁴ United States Agency for International Development, Washington, DC, USA.
⁵ NOAA Physical Sciences Laboratory, Boulder, CO, USA.
⁶ Earth System Science Interdisciplinary Center, University of Maryland, College Park, MD, USA.
⁷ NASA Goddard Space Flight Center, Greenbelt, MD, USA.
⁸ University of Colorado Boulder, Boulder, CO, USA.
⁹ Colorado School of Mines, Golden, CO, USA.
¹⁰ Atmospheric and Oceanic Sciences Program, Princeton University, Princeton, NJ, USA.
¹¹ NASA Goddard Institute for Space Studies, New York, NY, USA.
¹² Lamont-Doherty Earth Observatory, Palisades, NY, USA.

Abstract

Provided the considerable logistical challenges of anticipatory action and disaster response programs, there is a need for early warning of crop failures at lead times of six to twelve months. But crop yield forecasts at these lead times are virtually nonexistent. By leveraging recent advances in climate forecasting, we demonstrate that global preseason crop yield forecasts are not only possible but are skillful over considerable portions of cropland. Globally, maize and wheat forecasts are skillful at lead times of up to a year ahead of harvest for 15% and 30% of harvested areas, respectively. Forecasts are most skillful in Southeast Africa and Southeast Asia for maize and parts of South and Central Asia, Australia, and Southeast South America for wheat. Wheat forecasts, furthermore, remain skillful at lead times of over 18 months ahead of harvest in some locations. Our results demonstrate that the potential for preseason crop yield forecasts is greater than previously appreciated.

MeSH terms

Agriculture / methods
Australien
Crops, Agricultural* / growth & development
Forecasting* / methods
Triticum* / growth & development
Zea mays* / growth & development