A small step toward precision dosing of caffeine in preterm infants: An external evaluation of published population pharmacokinetic models

Background: Several population pharmacokinetic (PopPK) models of caffeine in preterm infants have been published, but the extrapolation of these models to facilitate model-informed precision dosing (MIPD) in clinical practice is uncertain. This study aimed to comprehensively evaluate their predictive performance using an external, independent dataset.

Methods: Data used for external evaluation were based on an independent cohort of preterm infants. Currently available PopPK models for caffeine in preterm infants were identified and re-established. Prediction- and simulation-based diagnostics were used to assess model predictability. The influence of prior information was assessed using Bayesian forecasting.

Results: 120 plasma samples from 76 preterm infants were included in the evaluation dataset. Twelve PopPK models of caffeine in preterm infants were re-established based on our previously published study. Although two models showed superior predictive performance, none of the 12 PopPK models met all the clinical acceptance criteria of these external evaluation items. Besides, the external predictive performances of most models were unsatisfactory in prediction- and simulation-based diagnostics. Nevertheless, the application of Bayesian forecasting significantly improved the predictive performance, even with only one prior observation.

Conclusions: Two models that included the most covariates had the best predictive performance across all external assessments. Inclusion of different covariates, heterogeneity of preterm infant characteristics, and different study designs influenced predictive performance. Thorough evaluation is needed before these PopPK models can be implemented in clinical practice. The implementation of MIPD for caffeine in preterm infants could benefit from the combination of PopPK models and Bayesian forecasting as a helpful tool.