Implications of the shift to DSM-5 for alcohol use disorder prevalence estimates in the National Survey on Drug Use and Health

Background and aims: The Substance Abuse and Mental Health Services Administration's annual National Survey on Drug Use and Health (NSDUH) is a commonly used source for estimating trends in alcohol use disorders (AUD) in the United States. From 2015 to 2019 the annual prevalence of people diagnosed with either Diagnostic and Statistical Manual 4th edition (DSM-IV) alcohol abuse or dependence ranged from 5.3 to 5.9%. More recent estimates, using the DSM 5th edition (DSM-5) AUD diagnostic formulation, have been higher, with AUD base rates ranging from 10.1 to 10.7% from 2020 to 2022. This study aimed to compare the past 12-month base rates of AUD in the United States general population when using the DSM-5 versus DSM-IV AUD (i.e. abuse or dependence) and assess the AUD severity of individuals captured with each diagnostic formulation using DSM-5 AUD symptom counts.

Methods: We examined descriptive trends in the rate of past-year NSDUH AUD diagnoses from 2015 to 2022. We contrasted them with trends in drinking behavior: the percentage of individuals who had ever reported drinking and the number of drinking days and binge drinking days for those who drink. We also analyzed the concordance between DSM-IV and DSM-5 AUD diagnoses in the 2020 NSDUH, which concurrently assessed AUD with both diagnostic formulations.

Results: The transition to DSM-5 AUD formulation coincided with a drastic increase in AUD prevalence rates that occurred without increases in drinking behavior. In 2020 NSDUH data, the estimated past-year DSM-5 AUD prevalence rate was 10.1% compared with a 5.4% rate of past-year DSM-IV abuse or dependence. The DSM-5 AUD formulation captured more mild-severity individuals than the DSM-IV formulation.

Conclusions: Higher recent base rates of alcohol use disorders (AUD) in the National Survey on Drug Use and Health are likely, at least partially, explained by measurement changes in AUD; specifically, the shift from DSM-IV abuse or dependence to DSM-5 AUD. The DSM-5 formulation appears substantially more inclusive than the DSM-IV formulation, leading to a larger number of mild severity individuals being captured.