Exploring clinical factors to predict the survival of patients with resectable non-small cell lung cancer with neoadjuvant immunotherapy

Objectives: The goal was to explore clinical factors and build a predictive model for the disease-free and overall survival of patients with non-small cell lung cancer (NSCLC) receiving neoadjuvant chemotherapy combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors.

Methods: Inclusion criteria for patients in this multicentre study were as follows: (i) Patients who were diagnosed with stages I-III NSCLC after a bronchoscopy biopsy or puncture; (ii) patients who were examined with computed tomography/positron emission tomography-computed tomography before treatment and surgery; (iii) patients who received neoadjuvant chemotherapy combined with immune checkpoint inhibitors for 2 to 6 cycles preoperatively; (iv) patients whose peripheral blood indicators and tumour markers were assessed before treatment and preoperatively; (v) patients who underwent radical lung cancer surgery after neoadjuvant therapy. Cases were divided into high- and low-risk groups according to 78 clinical indicators based on a 10-fold Least Absolute Shrinkage and Selection Operator selection. We used Cox proportional hazards models to predict disease-free and overall survival. Then, we used time-dependent area under the curve and decision curve analyses to examine the accuracy of the results.

Results: Data were collected continuously, and 212 and 85 cases were randomly assigned to training and testing sets, respectively. The area under the curve for the prediction of disease-free survival (training: 1 year, 0.83; 2 years, 0.81; 3 years, 0.83 versus testing: 1 year, 0.65; 2 years, 0.66; 3 years, 0.70), overall survival (training: 1 year, 0.86; 2 years, 0.85; 3 years, 0.86 versus testing: 1 year, 0.66; 2 years, 0.57; 3 years, 0.70) were determined. The coefficient factors including pathological response; preoperative tumour maximum diameter; preoperative lymph shorter diameter; preoperative tumour and lymph maximum standardized uptake value; change in tumour standardized uptake value preoperatively; and blood-related risk factors were favourably associated with prognosis (P < 0.001).

Conclusions: Our prediction model, which integrated data from preoperative positron emission tomography-CT, preoperative blood parameters and pathological response, was able to make highly accurate predictions for disease-free and overall survival in patients with NSCLC receiving neoadjuvant immunity with chemical therapy.