Background: In recent years, the number of HIV/AIDS cases among youth has increased year by year around the world. A spatial and temporal analysis of these AIDS cases is necessary for the development of youth AIDS prevention and control policies.
Objective: This study aimed to analyze the spatial and temporal distribution and associated factors of HIV/AIDS among youth in Guangxi as an example.
Methods: The reported HIV/AIDS cases of youths aged 15-24 years in Guangxi from January 2014 to December 2021 were extracted from the Chinese Comprehensive Response Information Management System of HIV/AIDS. Data on population, economy, and health resources were obtained from the Guangxi Statistical Yearbook. The ArcGIS (version 10.8; ESRI Inc) software was used to describe the spatial distribution of AIDS incidence among youths in Guangxi. A Bayesian spatiotemporal model was used to analyze the distribution and associated factors of HIV/AIDS, such as gross domestic product per capita, population density, number of health technicians, and road mileage per unit area.
Results: From 2014 to 2021, a total of 4638 cases of HIV/AIDS infection among youths were reported in Guangxi. The reported incidence of HIV/AIDS cases among youths in Guangxi increased from 9.13/100,000 in 2014 to 11.15/100,000 in 2019 and then plummeted to a low of 8.37/100,000 in 2020, followed by a small increase to 9.66/100,000 in 2021. The districts (counties) with relatively high HIV/AIDS prevalence among youths were Xixiangtang, Xingning, Qingxiu, Chengzhong, and Diecai. The reported incidence of HIV/AIDS among youths was negatively significantly associated with road mileage per unit area (km) at a posterior mean of -0.510 (95% CI -0.818 to 0.209). It was positively associated with population density (100 persons) at a posterior mean of 0.025 (95% CI 0.012-0.038), with the number of health technicians (100 persons) having a posterior mean of 0.007 (95% CI 0.004-0.009).
Conclusions: In Guangxi, current HIV and AIDS prevention and control among young people should focus on areas with a high risk of disease. It is suggested to strengthen the allocation of AIDS health resources and balance urban development and AIDS prevention. In addition, AIDS awareness, detection, and intervention among Guangxi youths need to be strengthened.
Keywords: Bayesian model; HIV/AIDS; acquired immunodeficiency syndrome; reported incidence; spatiotemporal distribution; youth.
© Juntong Li, Runxi Zhang, Guanghua Lan, Mei Lin, Shengkui Tan, Qiuying Zhu, Huanhuan Chen, Jinghua Huang, Dongni Ding, Chunying Li, Yuhua Ruan, Na Wang. Originally published in JMIR Public Health and Surveillance (https://publichealth.jmir.org).