Outcomes of Watchful Waiting Strategy and Predictors of Postoperative Prognosis in Asymptomatic or Equivocally Symptomatic Chronic Severe Aortic Regurgitation With Preserved Left Ventricular Function

J Am Heart Assoc. 2024 Oct 15;13(20):e036292. doi: 10.1161/JAHA.124.036292. Epub 2024 Oct 11.

Abstract

Background: The optimal surgical timing for asymptomatic or equivocally symptomatic chronic severe aortic regurgitation with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction remains controversial.

Methods and results: Two hundred ten consecutive patients (median age 65 years) with asymptomatic or equivocally symptomatic chronic severe aortic regurgitation and left ventricular ejection fraction ≥50% were registered. First, the treatment plans (aortic valve replacement or watchful waiting) after initial diagnosis were investigated. Then, 2 studies were set: Study A (n=144) investigated the prognosis of patients who were managed under the watchful waiting strategy after initial diagnosis; Study B (n=99) investigated the postoperative prognosis in patients who underwent aortic valve replacement at initial diagnosis or after watchful waiting. The primary outcomes were all-cause death in Study A and postoperative cardiovascular events in Study B. In Study A, 3 died of noncardiovascular causes during a median follow-up of 3.2 years. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, the survival curve was similar to that of an age-sex-matched general population in Japan. In Study B, 9 experienced the primary outcome during a median follow-up of 5.0 years. In Cox regression analysis, preoperative left ventricular end-systolic diameter enlargement (hazard ratio, 1.11; P=0.048) and left ventricular end-systolic diameter >45 mm (hazard ratio, 12.75; P=0.02) were significantly associated with poor postoperative prognosis. In Kaplan-Meier analysis, left ventricular end-systolic diameter >45 mm predicted a higher risk of the primary outcome (P <0.01).

Conclusions: Watchful waiting was achieved safely in asymptomatic or equivocally symptomatic chronic severe aortic regurgitation with preserved left ventricular ejection fraction. Preoperative left ventricular end-systolic diameter >45 mm predicted a poor postoperative outcome and may be an optimal cut-off value for surgical indication.

Keywords: aortic regurgitation; aortic valve replacement; left ventricular end‐systolic diameter; prognosis; watchful waiting.

MeSH terms

  • Aged
  • Aortic Valve / diagnostic imaging
  • Aortic Valve / physiopathology
  • Aortic Valve / surgery
  • Aortic Valve Insufficiency* / diagnosis
  • Aortic Valve Insufficiency* / mortality
  • Aortic Valve Insufficiency* / physiopathology
  • Aortic Valve Insufficiency* / surgery
  • Asymptomatic Diseases
  • Chronic Disease
  • Female
  • Heart Valve Prosthesis Implantation / adverse effects
  • Humans
  • Japan / epidemiology
  • Male
  • Middle Aged
  • Prognosis
  • Retrospective Studies
  • Risk Factors
  • Severity of Illness Index
  • Stroke Volume* / physiology
  • Time Factors
  • Treatment Outcome
  • Ventricular Function, Left* / physiology
  • Watchful Waiting*