Modelling the temporal trajectories of human milk components

Background: This paper demonstrates how available data can be explored and utilized to conclude generic patterns in the temporal changes in Human Milk (HM) composition.

Methods: The temporal trajectories of selected human milk components (HMC-s) were described, in the first four months postpartum, by a primary model consisting of two phases: a short linear phase in the colostrum, triggered by the parturition; and a longer second phase, where the concentration of the component converges to a steady state. The model was fitted to data available in a recently published database of temporal HMC trajectories both at the levels of individual molecules (such as specific fatty acid, oligosaccharide, and mineral molecules) and molecule-groups (such as total protein, total fat).

Results: The properties of the trajectories suggest that experimental designs should follow non-equidistant sampling times, with increasingly longer time intervals after the first week postpartum. A selected parameter, the final stationary level, of the primary model was then studied as a function of geographical location (secondary modelling).

Conclusions: We found that the total variation of the concentration of specific HMC-s is dominantly due to the inherent biological differences between individual mothers and to less extent to the geographical location.