Cross-sectional and longitudinal genotype to phenotype surveillance of SARS-CoV-2 variants over the first four years of the COVID-19 pandemic

Background: Continued phenotyping and ongoing molecular epidemiology are important in current and future monitoring of emerging SARS-CoV-2 lineages. Herein we developed pragmatic strategies to track the emergence, spread and phenotype of SARS-CoV-2 variants in Australia in an era of decreasing diagnostic PCR testing and focused cohort-based studies. This was aligned to longitudinal studies that span 4 years of the COVID-19 pandemic.

Methods: Throughout 2023, we partnered with diagnostic pathology providers and pathogen genomics teams to identify relevant emerging or circulating variants in the New South Wales (NSW) community. We monitored emerging variants through viral culture, growth algorithms, neutralisation responses and changing entry requirements defined by ACE2 and TMPRSS2 receptor use. To frame this in the context of the pandemic stage, we continued to longitudinally track neutralisation responses at the population level using pooled Intravenous Immunoglobulins (IVIG) derived from in excess of 700,000 donations.

Findings: In antibodies derived from recent individual donations and thousands of donations pooled in IVIGs, we observed continued neutralisation across prior and emerging variants with EG.5.1, HV.1, XCT and JN.1 ranked as the most evasive SARS-CoV-2 variants. Changes in the type I antibody site at Spike positions 452, 455 and 456 were associated with lowered neutralisation responses in XBB lineages. In longitudinal tracking of population immunity spanning three years, we observed continued maturation of neutralisation breadth to all SARS-CoV-2 variants over time. Whilst neutralisation responses initially displayed high levels of imprinting towards Ancestral and early pre-Omicron lineages, this was slowly countered by increased cross reactive breadth to all variants. We predicted JN.1 to have a marked transmission advantage in late 2023 and this eventuated globally at the start of 2024. We could not attribute this advantage to neutralisation resistance but rather propose that this growth advantage arises from the preferential utilisation of ACE2 pools that cannot engage TMPRSS2 at its Collectrin-Like Domain (CLD).

Interpretation: The emergence of many SARS-CoV-2 lineages documented at the end of 2023 was found to be initially associated with lowered neutralisation responses. This continued to be countered by the gradual maturation of cross-reactive neutralisation responses over time. The later appearance and dominance of the divergent JN.1 lineage cannot be attributed to a lack of neutralisation responses alone, and our data supports that its dominance is a culmination of both lowered neutralisation and changes in ACE2/TMPRSS2 entry preferences.

Funding: This work was primarily supported by Australian Medical Foundation research grants MRF2005760 (ST, GM & WDR), MRF2001684 (ADK and ST) and Medical Research Future Fund Antiviral Development Call grant (WDR), Medical Research Future Fund COVID-19 grant (MRFF2001684, ADK & SGT) and the New South Wales Health COVID-19 Research Grants Round 2 (SGT).