Phase- and density-dependent population dynamics in Norwegian lemmings: interaction between deterministic and stochastic processes

Proc Biol Sci. 1998 Oct 22;265(1409):1957-68. doi: 10.1098/rspb.1998.0526.

Abstract

We analysed two 26-year long (1970-1995) time-series on annual population growth rates of Norwegian lemmings (Lemmus lemmus) from Finse, south Norway, using a threshold autoregressive (TAR) approach. We demonstrate that the population dynamics is both phase- and density-dependent. The phase-dependence accounts for the observed nonlinearity. We used the deduced stochastic model structure as a basis for evaluating the dynamic properties of this system. The dynamics is characterized either by limit cycles or chaos (the latter with a strong semi-periodic component). Stochasticity is seen to play an important role in the determination of the periodicity. The ecological implications of these statistical and mathematical results are discussed.

Publication types

  • Research Support, Non-U.S. Gov't
  • Research Support, U.S. Gov't, Non-P.H.S.

MeSH terms

  • Animals
  • Arvicolinae*
  • Ecosystem
  • Models, Biological
  • Nonlinear Dynamics
  • Norwegen
  • Population Density
  • Population Dynamics
  • Stochastic Processes