:Product: Forecast Discussion :Issued: 2024 Aug 02 0030 UTC # Prepared by the U.S. Dept. of Commerce, NOAA, Space Weather Prediction Center # Solar Activity .24 hr Summary... Solar activity was high due to a number of M-class flares to include two greater than M5 events. Thirteen designated sunspot groups were present on the visible solar disk and background X-ray flux was at near M-class levels. Region 3768 (S16W85, Fkc/beta-gamma-delta) produced most of the flare activity and was the source of the largest flare of the day, a long-duration M8.2 (R2) at 01/0709 UTC with associated Type II and IV radio bursts and a 500 sfu Tenflare. Region 3773 (S06W72, Bxi/beta) produced an M6.3 at 01/0150 UTC before showing significant decay. Region 3772 (S25E34, Eac/beta-gamma-delta) underwent some growth and increased complexity in the trailer section. New Region 3776 (N10E34, Bxo/beta) was numbered this period and was inactive. Analysis and modelling of the CME associated with the M8.2 flare from Region 3768 results indicated a possible glancing blow midday to late on 03 Aug. .Forecast... Solar activity is expected to be moderate to high, with continuing M-class flares (R1-R2 Minor-Moderate) and a chance for X-class activity (R3-Strong) through 04 Aug due to the number of magnetically complex sunspot groups present on the visible solar disk. Energetic Particle .24 hr Summary... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux was normal, while the greater than 10 MeV proton flux remained at background. .Forecast... The greater than 2 MeV electron flux is anticipated to continue at normal to moderate levels on 02-04 Aug. A chance for the greater than 10 MeV proton flux to reach S1 (Minor) solar radiation storm levels will persist through 04 Aug given ongoing limb activity primarily from AR3762 and AR3768. In addition, the complex of regions, to include AR3766, will be rotating into a more favorable location on the southwest limb. Solar Wind .24 hr Summary... Solar wind parameters were indicative of CME influences. Total IMF strength was elevated to 08 to 12 nT. The Bz component varied with a maximum deviation of -08 nT. Solar wind speed steadily decreased from 475-400 km/s. The phi angle rotated to a positive orientation early and has since persisted. .Forecast... Solar wind conditions are expected to remain slightly enhanced on 02 Aug with lingering CME influences. A CME that left the Sun early on 01 Aug is likely to further enhance solar wind parameters on 03 Aug and persist into 04 Aug. Geospace .24 hr Summary... The geomagnetic field was at unsettled to minor storm levels (G1-Minor), in response to CME arrival and passage. .Forecast... Quiet to active levels are expected on 02 Aug with any lingering CME influences. G2 (Moderate) storm levels are likely on 03-04 Aug due to the anticipated arrival of a CME that left the Sun on 01 Aug.