Eric Berger

In brief: Houston’s heat continues, with daily highs in the mid-90s for the rest of the week. We’ll cool down ever so slightly this weekend, and low-end rain chances return next week. We’re also keeping a wary eye on the tropics, as the Caribbean Sea stirs.

A note on the Moon

Last evening, if you were outside looking up, you may have noticed a full Moon. It looked pretty spectacular. However you may have seen a bit of blurring or dimming at the top of the Moon. This was, in fact, a partial lunar eclipse. Only about 8 percent of the Moon’s surface was covered before Earth’s shadow started to recede. I apologize, if I had realized this was occurring in advance, I would have noted it in yesterday’s post.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Yes, I’m lumping all three days together because they’re all going to be very similar. Each day will have high temperatures in the vicinity of the mid-90s for most of Houston, with slightly cooler daytime temperatures on the coast. Skies will be partly to mostly sunny, with generally light winds from the southeast at 5 to 10 mph. Lows will only fall into the upper-70s. Rain chances are effectively zero, although we cannot rule out a very isolated shower here or there.

This is probably the warmest weather we’re going to see for the rest of this year, so if you like the heat, enjoy. And if you prefer somewhat more temperate temperatures, well, hold on for a little while longer.

Saturday and Sunday

More of the same, however as high pressure weakens a bit we could see daily temperatures slide down by a couple of degrees. Overnight lows, too, could drop into the mid-70s. Skies will be mostly sunny, with low- to non-existent rain chances.

Next week

Temperatures look to remain in the low 90s next week, with partly to mostly sunny skies. Rain chances continue to look fairly low, but may rise to the 20 or 30 percent range by Tuesday or so, with similar daily odds for the remainder of the week. As we get closer to next weekend it looks like we could see some kind of front, perhaps backdooring in from the northeast, but there’s not certainty in the models yet. So we can have some hope for a cool front with some drier air about 10 days from now. But for now, all it remains is a solid hope.

Tropics

The National Hurricane Center has started to highlight an area in the Caribbean Sea that we’ve been talking about for a couple of days. It still appears as though development will be slow, with nothing forming for at least the five to seven days. If a tropical low does develop—and there is no certainty at all that it will—all of our best models are pretty well divided on what will happen in terms of where it goes. For us along the upper Texas coast this is probably not something to be too concerned about. However, given the high uncertainty we’ll just have to see what happens.

In brief: Houston will continue to see unseasonably warm weather, with high temperatures in the low- to mid-90s for most locations. The sunny pattern continues this weekend, with more late summer weather. There is the possibility of a cool front in about 10 days, but it is far from locked in. We also discuss potential tropical activity in the Caribbean Sea next week.

Tuesday

With high pressure in place, you pretty know what to expect with Houston’s weather this week, which is plenty of heat, humidity, and sunshine. High temperatures reached 96 degrees on Monday at Bush Intercontinental Airport, and that’s a good predictor of what will happen today, with mostly sunny skies, and light northeasterly winds. Rain chances are essentially zero, but there is a very slight chance of some brief showers along the sea breeze. Low temperatures tonight will drop into the mid- to upper-70s for much of the region.

Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

More of the same. We’re going to see sunny and hot weather for the remainder of the work week. Need I say more?

Saturday and Sunday

The pattern continues into the weekend, however as the intensity of the high pressure system wanes some we’ll see a slight moderation in temperatures. Don’t expect much, but daily highs could drop into the low-90s, with plenty of sunshine. Nighttime lows may fall into the mid-70s. Skies still should remain partly to mostly sunny, with very low rain chances.

Next week

There’s not a whole lot of change next week, with fairly warm temperatures. Perhaps we’ll see slightly better rain chances to start next week, in the vicinity of 20 or 30 percent, I’m not sure. Some of the global models are indicating that a front may arrive by around Thursday or Friday of next week, but the signal is not yet strong enough that I’m buying it. However, it is possible. We’ll see.

Tropics

A tropical system that has been absolutely soaking North Carolina has finally moved inland. Beyond that there’s not much to note that is presently active. However, most of our modeling guidance continues to highlight the western Caribbean Sea as a location where we can expect to see the development of a tropical low in about a week or so.

Beyond that there is not much sensible to say. This system could then track into the Yucatan Peninsula or turn north toward Florida or the eastern Gulf of Mexico. Yes, it could even move toward Texas, but at this point there is little model support for such an outcome—especially if the aforementioned front materializes. Nevertheless, at this time of year in the tropics we watch everything.

In brief: With high pressure asserting control over our region’s weather, the forecast period looks mostly hot, and mostly sunny, for the foreseeable future. At some point we’re going to start getting some fronts and a more fall-like pattern, but we are not going to reach that point this week.

Highs and lows

We are now in mid-September, a time when historically the Texas coast is most vulnerable to large and powerful hurricanes. The first line of defense for our region in August and September from hurricanes is high pressure. This makes for hot and sunny conditions over land, but also establishes an atmospheric pattern that steers storms away.

For the next week or 10 days, we’re going to see a fairly dominant high pressure system over the Texas coast. That may not be what you want to see weather wise in Houston, as it will mean hot and sunny days and an absence of fronts to cool us down. However, it will also keep any low-pressure systems at bay. In short, at a time when we would normally be most concerned about hurricanes and Texas, we can breathe easy for now.

Monday

We’ll see a mix of clouds and sunshine this morning before clearing skies this afternoon. Expect high temperatures generally in the mid-90s, with light northerly winds. As for rain chances, they’re not zero, but they’re less than 10 percent. So close enough. Lows tonight will drop into the mid-70s.

Tuesday through Friday

As mentioned above, with high pressure in place do not expect much change in our day to day weather. Highs, generally, will be in the low- to mid-90s with mostly sunny skies. Low temperatures will fall into the mid-70s. Winds all week look to be fairly light, in the vicinity of 5 to 10 mph. In terms of rain chances, they’re not exactly zero. But they’re not much above 10 percent each day. Most parts of our region are unlikely to see any accumulation this week.

Saturday, Sunday, and beyond

At this point the overall pattern appears unlikely to change much this weekend, or even into the early part of next week. Highs, generally, should remain in the low-90s, with mostly sunny skies, and low rain chances through the weekend at least, if not beyond.

Tropic

The tropics are decidedly not quiet, but for our purposes in Texas they’re not of any concern. The only thing I’m watching is the potential for some development in the western Caribbean Sea about eight to 10 days from now. There’s no evidence this will track toward Texas, but it’s the only development likely near the Gulf of Mexico in the near term. If you want to know what’s happening across the Atlantic basin, be sure and check out The Eyewall.

In brief: In this post we take a brief look back at the Francine forecast and some of our exasperations, and then look ahead at a period of much hotter weather. Summer is not over yet, and we’ll discover that this weekend.

A brief word about Francine

Here at Space City Weather we try to get things right. We don’t always succeed—this year we were surprised by a derecho, and our early forecasts for Hurricane Beryl missed the mark. But our commitment to readers is that we’re always going to tell you what we think, in a straightforward manner, without hype or tricks.

Which brings me to last Monday afternoon. I had just hit ‘publish’ on a post about Francine, in which we continued to predict the tropical system would remain far enough offshore to preclude serious impacts for Houston specifically, and Texas in general. Almost immediately after that story went up on the website, we started to get questions here, on Facebook, and by email about a western “shift” in the forecast. Apparently some media outlets and popular social media accounts were reporting on this, suggesting serious impacts were possible in Texas from Francine. Initially, I was stumped. I certainly wasn’t seeing that prospect in the model data.

It turns out this was a reaction to a very slight change in the official track forecast from the National Hurricane center. I bring this up, because I saw something Thursday from hurricane scientist James Franklin that reveals just how slight this shift was. The map below shows a plot of landfall forecasts from the National Hurricane Center over the 78 hours prior to landfall. I’ve added an arrow to highlight the western “shift” in the track that caused all of the commotion:

The trend over the weekend had been an eastward one, and there was no model data at the time suggesting a huge shift back toward Texas was imminent. And as you can see, during the very next forecast cycle, the official forecast shifted to the east, and more than wiped out the earlier change. Somewhat exasperated, I touched on this topic in a post at 10 pm that same day.

Why were Matt and I exasperated? Every storm is different. With Francine coming along just a couple of months after Beryl, Houston residents were understandably sensitive to the possibility that Francine would not turn away from our area. Emphasizing this “western shift” played on those concerns. We also recognize that after all of the crazy, wild, and destructive storms, freezes, heat waves, and more that we’ve had in just the last decade, Houston residents can live on pins and needles when inclement weather threatens. The very last thing we want try to do is exacerbate those fears.

Friday

Enough about storms, let’s talk about sunshine. There will be plenty of that this weekend, and beyond, as high pressure more or less asserts control over our weather. Since we’re now into mid-September, with shorter days and a lower sun angle, temperatures are not going back into triple digits, but it will still be plenty hot.

Highs today will reach the mid-90s for much of Houston, except for coastal regions, which will see highs a few degrees lower. Skies will be sunny. Winds will be light at only a few mph, from the west. There won’t be much relief overnight, with low temperatures generally falling into the mid- to upper-70s. So yeah, welcome back summer.

Saturday and Sunday

Expect more of the same, with mostly sunny skies, light winds, and temperatures in the mid- to upper-90s for inland areas. The coast will be a bit cooler during the daytime. Overnights lows will remain warm, in the upper 70s. Could we see a few rogue thunderstorms? Maybe. But I’d put chances at about 5 percent, so probably not.

Next week

The first half of the week will start out with highs in the mid-90s, and perhaps a 10 percent chance of showers on Monday and Tuesday. However, after that we should see temperatures back of slightly, into the lower 90s. Rain chances remain low, with mostly sunny skies, for the remainder of the week, and probably next weekend as well. Our next chance of a front comes in about 10 to 12 days time, but at this point it’s closer to a hope than a certainty.

Tropics

There’s nothing to see here. After writing a lot the last 12 days about Francine and other weather, we’re taking the weekend off. See you on Monday.