When a current world record holder breaks their own WR and still doesn’t win, there is some serious talent in the pool. At the Australian Trials two weeks ago, Mollie O’Callaghan touched second in the women’s 200 freestyle in a time that was under her 1:52.85 world record in 1:52.48, but it still fell just shy of Ariarne Titmus, who set a new benchmark of 1:52.23.
Rounding out the top four at Trials and making up the likely 800 free relay relay in Paris are Lani Pallister and Brianna Throssell, who touched at 1:55.57 and 1:55.74, respectively. Without accounting for relay takeovers, their 800 free relay in Paris would look like this:
- Titmus – 1:52.23
- O’Callaghan – 1:52.48
- Pallister – 1:55.57
- Throssell – 1:55.74
- Total – 7:36.02*
Paris Preview
The current world record stands at 7:37.50, set by the Australian team last summer at the World Championships in Fukuoka. When the record was set, Shayna Jack was on the team instead of Pallister and she will also be traveling to Paris with Australia. Depending on how they want to structure the prelim and evening relays the names are subject to change but with two more 1:56-lows supporting the team, they don’t lack depth.
Coming out of the 2023 World Trials, the add-up of the four that would go on to set the record in Fukuoka would have been 7:41.66. Knowing they then went on to crush that by over four seconds as Titmus dropped the fastest split in history (1:52.41), the questions this summer become:
- How far can they lower their own record?
- Will Titmus and/or O’Callaghan become the first to break the 1:52 mark (from a takeover…or not)?
To put this relay in perspective, no other relay team has ever broken the 7:40 mark in the 800 free relay. The closest team was the gold medal relay from China at the Tokyo Olympics at 7:40.33. This team will be returning their swimmers in Paris this summer, but the Australian team is in a league of their own for this relay.
Based on the results of the Chinese and Canadian Trials, the Australian team is looking at an eight-second buffer heading into the Olympics. While the United States is still in the mix after Trials, there is a massive amount of ground to be made up for all these teams as they chase Australia’s heels. Based on the times posted so far this year, it’s unlikely any other team will break 7:40.
| Land | Australien | China | Vereinigte Staaten | Kanada |
| Leg 1 | 1:52.23 | 1:54.37 | 1:55.22 | 1:53.69 |
| Leg 2 | 1:52.48 | 1:56.29 | 1:56.18 | 1:55.44 |
| Leg 3 | 1:55.57 | 1:56.56 | 1:56.36 | 1:57.60 |
| Leg 4 | 1:55.74 | 1:56.85 | 1:56.75 | 1:57.86 |
| Total Time | 7:36.02 | 7:44.07 | 7:44.51 | 7:44.59 |
At the Tokyo Olympics, there was less than one second separating the top three finishers as China, the United States, and Australia battled tooth and nail for podium spots.
While we won’t know for sure until the Paris Games this summer, it is shaping up to be a race for silver as Australia seeks to smash its mind-boggling world record.
It’s literally like having Thorpe and VDHB on the same team circa 2000/2001. It’s such a streaky piece of luck,
Notice how the actual good Australian swimmers aren’t the ones running their mouth
Whos running their mouth?
Getting riled up over a multi-time medalist’s comments from… 2023?
If I was the coaches I would book end the two fastest swimmers.
O’Callaghan, Pallister, Throssell,
And Titmus. 💪💪🇦🇺🇦🇺
That would break the cowbell in 1/2
Aye
I’d love to see them front end the relay with MOC and Titmus. The lead would be huge.
It would be massive. Like over 7 seconds or something like that. That’s crazy…but they’ll probably lead off with Mollie and anchor with Titmus. I’m predicting they go a 7.33 or close to that mark.
IMO, this is the order that gives the USA any chance coupled with strong closers / chasers at 3 & 4. Any underperformance by the Australians at 1 & 2, if they go MOC and AT at 1 & 2 and if the USA puts closers on the back half ((KT, PM, etc) is the only way Australia loses this relay.
I was taught this order for the 800 F.R.: second fastest first, fourth fastest second, a non-fader / back-halfer third and the hammer 4th.
IMM, both the 400 F.R. and 800 F.R. are the Australians to lose. But you never know 🤷♂️🙏🤞
Meant to be a response to Nick’s suggested order, not mS424’s.
The good thing is all the aussie women are non-fader/back-halfers
The opposite would be fun too
I would watch this. It would be so much fun.
So I tried another method of showing how much of an advantage Australia has in this event. Since this is a US dominated site (myself included) I only did the exercise for the US quartet.
Using https://results.swimming.org.au/portal/ I got the 5th best times for all the Australian women.
5th best time
Titmus – 1:53.50
O’Callaghan – 1:54:01
Pallister – 1:56:28
Throssell – 1:56.87
Add Up – 7:40.66
Personal Bests
Ledecky – 1:53.73
Madden – 1:56.36
Weinstein – 1:55.26
Gemmel – 1:55.97
Add Up – 7:41.32
So every US woman could go a .16 PB, taking .64 off the add up for a 7:40.68. That would… Read more »
This is fascinating. But also, MOC’s and Throssell’s times are actually faster than that.
MOC
1:52.48 Paris Trials
1:52.85 Fukuoka final
1:53.57 2024 Nationals
1:53.66 Fukuoka relay leadoff
1:53.83 Fukuoka trials
Throssell
1:55.74 Paris trials
1:56.00 Doha final
1:56.24 Budapest trials
1:56.48 2024 Nationals
1:56.62 Gwangju trials
So drop another 0.43
Yeah looks like the DB is missing a lot of results, part of why I cited it. Wasn’t sure where else to source them to try and answer my insane sounding question. But we’re now at all the US woman going .27 faster than their PBs and still being .01 slower than the 5th best times of the AUS woman. It’s just nuts.
For some reason they always miss relay lead offs.
So by your calculations, you COULD use their 6th fastest times ever and then woukd add to 7:41.04 and it would still be better then USA’s PB add up time
I wouldn’t be surprised if Canada gets silver behind Australia
On current paper, USA CHN and CAN all have legitimate shot at silver.
Canada? Absolutely not
It depends on Ruck and Oleksiak.
Summer 1:53
Mary Sophie Henry 1:55
If Ruck and Oleksiak can swim 1:56, they have a chance.
I feel like Brousseau has a much better chance of hitting 1:56 than Oleksiak or Ruck. Ruck had some great relay splits in the 4×100 in Doha. But she said she has been training for 50 and 100. Neither Penny nor Ruck have shown any signs of a strong 200 lately. Too bad the relay pieces were never firing at the same time.
Thanks for letting me know about Brousseau. I’m very familiar about Canada second tier swimmers. How old is she and whats her current PB?
Julie is 18.
Her PB in the 200 free is 1:57.60.
Big if, right now they’re in the 1:59-2:01 range.
Two more things, 1. It’s Harvey not Henry 😂, 2. MSH has been on a heater recently, so I could see her going a 1:54
Ella Jansen had a 1:56 high split once, but also had slow split at 1.59 multiple times (at world championships?)
On paper yes. Australia is by far the favorite. The 800fr relay will most likely be their only relay win.
Because the US have been so dominant at the W 4 x 100Free?
Here comes Swimdad with another shockingly terrible anti-Australia take
Prior to trials Australia was huge favorites to win the W 4fr relay. Not anymore.
See I don’t think trials changed much. Both countries are in a similar position to last year post trials.
OK let’s assume the Australians don’t improve, don’t drop any time from flying starts and just repeat their exact times from trials. That gives them a 3:30.45, which is more than half a second faster than the American record. Their add ups are 1.23 seconds faster than the US add ups. US will have 2/4 of their relay finals swimmers pulling a double with the 100 fly while all 4 Australians will be fresh. If you remove Australia’s winner and instead use our 5th place we are still ahead of USA by almost half a second.
You said Australia will “most likely” lose this relay. I challenge you to defend that statement with any semblance of logic or reason.
Didn’t think so
Because Simone is a clutch swimmer and Douglass split z51.9 on this relay last year, oh let’s not forget Gretchen Walsh 44,8 yard swim .7 sec faster than anyone else and huske swam a pb
Simone was more clutch individually than in relays.
Simone was slower in each round of the 100. That doesn’t exactly scream “clutch” to me
In what world.
Our final was slower than best times for all our swimmers and STILL faster than US.
Swimdad is a certified Australia hater.
26 millions Australians living and partying rent free 24/7 inside his head.
Not as overwhelmingly so as 4X200 but still fairly clear.
AUS Trials W100FR final WAS a nervy affair with times less impressive than in the past and it certainly created an impression that the door was opening to some degree. Except that the US final was even more nervy with times distinctly slower than AUS !
Will AUS win in Paris by 4sec ala Fukuoka ? Exceedingly unlikely given both Jack & McKeon appear sub 2023 levels
I’m certainly not seeing a 3.27, let alone better, from AUS, but for USA to even break 3.30 then they would need to rid themselves of a habit of having one poor (54) split.
On paper, USA could do it but it would… Read more »
Exactly my point…With a relay start, all 4 US swimmers could go 52 mid, 3 Aussie ladies could go 52 mid as well. The difference is obviously MOC who most likely go 51 high.
Australia is still favorite but the gap between them and team USA has significantly narrowed.
Why would Harris and Jack who’ve both been 52 mid flat start this year go 52 mid with a relay start? Jack went 51 4 times last year and Harris was 52.2 when her flat start was half a second slower.
Based on their trials… Jack 52.72, Harris 52.97.
52.65 and 52.52 in the heats show their real form.
The fact they couldn’t swim fast at finals show they can’t perform under pressure. This with only 4000 spectators.
There will be more people watching at the olympics.
“they can’t perform under pressure. This with only 4000 spectators”
There were plenty of people in the stands at Fukuoka. And they saw Australia perform brilliantly – 13 times winning gold.
Then the same holds true for those in the US final. ……. in front of a bigger crowd.
Douglass dropped time from semis but so did MOC from prelims to finals
Huske added time from semis to final
Walsh did drop time …… but has still yet to break 53sec
Manuel added time and did not break 53.
What world are you living in? Jack can’t perform under pressure but was still able to go 51s on several relays last year how does that add up? Aus trials were just about making the team a fast time is just a bonus
Still significantly quicker than 2 & 3 at US Trials. Harris has also had a couple of 52.5s in the lead-in.
Whilst I can agree that Jack, on the whole, has looked sub 2023 level so far; the weight of evidence suggests that Harris has made some significant forward progress.
Measured against some previous years; the AUS W100FR final was unspectacular but it did produce 3 sub 53s (with another producing one in prelims) but if anything the US reply was an “airswing” with only 2 below 53 (both slower than AUS counterparts with 2nd only 0.04 faster than AUS 3rd) and some much touted names …… producing their best in other events.
Based on trails Huske 52.93 & Walsh 53.13, so Aussies still in front without MOC final leg.
when exactly did this gap narrow? Not seeing it it in real results, maybe in the times some of you predict
The gap narrows when the US will improve on their trials swims, but the Aussie girls don’t, this is how they look at it.
The Aussies don’t improve on their trials swims? Did Jack and O’Callaghan not do massive pbs last year at worlds and put up some of the all time fastest performances are you living under a rock
I’m an Aussie, I was quoting some of the US comments.
But here you are shifting the goalposts to suit yourself. Your lead statement was “The 800fr relay will most likely be their only relay win.”
Huske Witzel Manuel Douglas..I hope Walsh could not be able to do doubles as we have seen..52.8 , 52.5, 52.5, 51.7 AR
Those splits would not have beat Australia
Anyway, I see you play this game where every US swimmers improve their fastest times in the past year by more than 0.6sec.
Let’s apply 0.6s improvements to Australian fastest times in the past year:
Bronte – Jack – Harris – Mollie
52.50 – 51.70 – 51.80 – 51.40 WR
(and I’m being stingy towards Australian as Jack already split 51.7 all week long in Fukuoka)
If you apply 0.6 to Kate D it is 51.19 (to be precise)
If you apply 0.6 McKeon, Jack, Mollie and Bronte, then it’s 50.79, 51.21, 51.27 and 51.01 to be precise.
Wanna continue to play the game?
Yes mischaracterized yet again. Just calling you on it.
Walsh has an extra year to figure out long course just like Douglass last year Walsh still posed a 52 low potential
She has a year between now and the Paris Olympics that are in 4 weeks to improve her 53.1 PB?
That’s slower than Australia’s trials times if you adjust for relay starts
Didn’t Douglass go 51.9 on the relay? And let’s not forget manuel a clutch swimmer always perform in the big meets
Hopefully your right
Well not just on paper …. we didn’t pick those times out of our butt cheeks, they actually swam those times.
and by the way good luck with the 4 x100 free relay.
Have preview begun already?