Cam Jordan made his NFL Draft selections known for his New Orleans Saints last Thursday night. He asked for cornerback Asante Samuel Jr. via Twitter. And defensive tackle Christian Barmore. And Carlos Basham Jr.
Four minutes later, the Saints’ defensive end wondered about linebackers Jabril Cox and Jeremiah Owusu-Koramoah.
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Then the No. 28 overall pick came in: Payton Turner, defensive end, Houston.
Former Pro Bowler Aqib Talib tried to call out Jordan right after the pick on Bleacher Report’s video draft coverage. Talib said he heard disappointment in Jordan’s voice when the Saints selected Turner. Jordan retorted trying to use his typical charm.
“Look, look. We can get excited about this,” Jordan said. “Because somebody under my tutelage, we can make him great. He’s got some intangibles that we can work with. You can’t teach size (6-6, 270 pounds for Turner) and teach hard work. We know what it is. We can never have enough good defensive linemen. When you have a great defensive line? Whew! Defense wins championships.
“Now I might have been hoping for a corner(back), but we can work with that.”
Talib followed up by giving the pick a D, and saying the Saints should’ve gone after Barmore or Terrace Marshall.
“I’m going to heavily disagree,” said Jordan, mentioning Turner’s hunger displayed on film.
Jordan finished defending the selection by saying, “I sort of like the pick. I’m not going to say I love the pick, but I like the pick.”
Ten years ago, after selecting Jordan at No. 24, the Saints traded back into Round 1, bartering with New England to select running back Mark Ingram at No. 28. Reggie Bush famously responded via Twitter: “It’s been fun New Orleans.” The Saints traded Bush to the Dolphins a couple of months later.
Jordan’s exit from New Orleans would be shocking this offseason. So would the departure of 2018 first-rounder Marcus Davenport considering the Saints issued the edge rusher his fifth-year option recently. Make no mistake about it, though: drafting Turner puts either Jordan or Davenport on notice for a departure.
Point to production. Point to dollars and sense. Point to both. A first-round pick immediately produces warning signs for a player current residing as the starter at the position drafted.
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Ask Aaron Rodgers.
So, let’s start with production. Both Jordan and Davenport watched dips in almost every area in terms of pass rush effectiveness.
But was that the result of Jordan slipping? Or was this because Trey Hendrickson (now with the Bengals) shot through the roof in 2020?
| Year | Sacks | Hurries | Hits | Knockdowns | Pressures |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
2019 | 4 | 27 | 16 | 5 | 29 |
2020 | 13 1/2 | 23 | 30 | 11 | 53 |
Two metric services I often reference don’t necessarily point to a major dropoff at all for Jordan in total value.
Jordan ranked among Nos. 54-69 overall players in the Pro Football Reference’s “Approximate Value” (12) last season. The edge defenders rated above Jordan were T.J. Watt (17), Myles Garrett (14), Khalil Mack (13) and Za’Darius Smith (13). Jason Pierre-Paul valued the same as Jordan. The Saints defensive end only dropped one value point from 2019 among edge defenders. Jordan also valued the exact same in 2019 and 2020 using Sports Info Solutions’ system of “Points Saved.”
As for Davenport, everything dropped everywhere.
In metrics world, Davenport’s AV value dropped from “6” in 2019 to “2” in 2020. But he actually jumped two points in SIS’ “Points Saved.”
“You don’t go into a draft necessarily sometimes saying, hey, this was a position, you’re really paying attention to the talent,” Sean Payton said after the Turner pick “And what I mean by that is, it might not have appeared to have been a player at a position we would want. But there were too many things that we felt gave this guy a lot of chances to be successful in our league.”
This sounded similar to the situation the Saints faced when they selected Ryan Ramczyk at the end of 2017’s Round 1.
Ramczyk wasn’t slated to start when first arriving to New Orleans, with Terron Armstead and Zach Strief primed to be the team’s left and right tackle, respectively. Payton pointed to an eventual need at right tackle with Strief entering his 12th season. But there was no spot ready for Ramczyk given there’s typically no rotating among offensive linemen.
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Then Armstead missed the first four games in 2017, pushing Ramczyk into the starting lineup at left tackle opposite Strief. In Week 4, Strief went down against the Dolphins in London with what turned out to be a career-ending knee injury. Ramczyk slid to the right side and has been there ever since.
The Jordan-Davenport-Turner trio likely won’t turn into as clean of a transition.
You draft someone like Jordan to be more than a rotational player. The same for Davenport. The same for Turner. Ultimately, the Saints desire two “every-down” edge defenders with others filling in when necessary.
Jordan’s cap numbers from 2021-2023, via Over the Cap, currently stand at $9.4 million, $22.7 million and $23.2 million. The Saints would incur a dead money hit of $21.4 million (only $1.2 million savings) if Jordan is a pre-June cut after the 2021 season and $13.3 million ($9.9 million savings) if released after 2022.
The economics wouldn’t point to Jordan being let go or traded in the very near future.
As for Davenport, I’m surprised the Saints exercised Davenport’s fifth-year option.
He’s guaranteed for $9.6 million for 2022. This is the first year the fifth-year option became fully guaranteed as soon as the team exercised the clause. It’s more of a gamble on a questionable player than in years past.
There’s no doubt eyes will be all over the quarterback battle in 2021 in Saintsland in the one-year experiment. Davenport’s progress probably ranks somewhere in the top storylines this offseason. Adding Turner puts even more heat on Davenport, and brings Jordan into the conversation.
Even with Jordan’s “we can work with this” approach.
