It now appears that the ongoing US security alert was indeed precipitated by a communications intercept. Specifically, an intercepted exchange between the leader of Al Qa'ida core - Ayman al-Zawahiri and the leader of Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula - Nasir al-Wuhayshi. Yesterday, before this confirmation arrived, I noted that an Intelligence leak of this magnitude would be highly significant.
Let's be clear, this leak represents an inexcusable failure of operational security - probably by someone on Capitol Hill. As I argued during my BBC discussion, it greatly complicates the necessary efforts of Intelligence officers. The protection (secrecy) of sources and methods provides the aorta of the Intelligence cycle. Without that protection, Intelligence efforts are doomed. In the US, there's a reason this information is classified Top Secret - Sensitive Compartmented Information (SCI). Again, it's truly pathetic that Congress happily condemns leakers whilst simultaneously hemorrhaging classified material. Put simply, it's the summit of hypocrisy.
So, where does this leave us?
In an absurd situation. Two of the world's most dangerous terrorists are now aware that the US has been monitoring their communications. They're aware because we told them. It's utterly ridiculous. As they alter their methods of communication and take greater steps to evade future surveillance, innocent lives will be placed in jeopardy.
For a number of diplomatic facilities, the US Government has extended the shutdown until Friday. I have a number of thoughts here.
1) The US Intelligence Community appears seriously concerned by the present terrorist threat environment. Media reports suggest that this alert was precipitated by intelligence 'chatter' of a significant nature. To me, this indicates that the target/s of the intercepts (IE - the individual/s being surveilled) are regarded as serious players. Or, in other words, they're not viewed as average dickheads - wannabe Jihadis with a loud mouth. To precipitate such a wide shutdown, the intelligence source would have to be of significant reputability in terms of an existing threat picture (IE - someone who has been linked to verified terrorist plots). Which leads me to point (2)...
2) The available evidence suggests that AQAP is responsible for this latest plot. For a start, ABC News has reported that at least some of the motivating intelligence has been sourced from AQAP's leader, Nasir al-Wuhayshi* (which would gel with my (1) thoughts). In addition, note the specific decision by the UK, France and Germany to close their embassies in Yemen (At least in part, this decision will have been driven by US intelligence sharing + Yemen is AQAP HQ). Regardless, as I've argued before, AQAP has shown an impressive ability to plan, fund and pursue significant terrorist plots. Further, in the context of recent Al Qa'ida linked prison breaks in Iraq and elsewhere (albeit not in traditional AQAP areas of operation), we know that there are a significant number of skilled and ideologically committed terrorists on the loose. In short, this is not an ideal situation.
3) The terrorist cell responsible appears to be active. The extension of the Embassy shutdown provides the best evidence for this supposition. In addition, the absence of announced detentions (if they had occurred the information would have probably leaked by now) suggests that the US also lacks a complete understanding of the cell/s formation - identities, strength, locations.
4) Linking to (3), the unprecedented diplomatic shutdown suggests that the US picked up the plot late on. Had the threat been identified earlier, it's likely we would have seen a more organized and less overtly dramatic increase in security.
5) It's very likely that the ongoing political fallout from Benghazi (please see my thoughts earlier this week) is motivating part of the security response. The Obama Administration is desperate to avoid allegations of a cavalier attitude towards terrorism. At the same time, post-Benghazi, an abundance of caution makes physical sense as well as political.
6) It's also probable that the excited Congressional reaction to this plot has a sizable measure of political motivation. As evidenced by the House's upholding of the NSA's data intercept program, most members of Congress remain committed to providing robust counter-terrorism capabilities to the IC. Yet, these officials are also keenly aware of growing concern among Americans over the civil liberty implications of those same programs. In this sense, by pointing to the apparent seriousness of this latest threat and by suggesting that the plot was discovered by signal intercepts (hint hint... NSA), politicians are trying to defend their continued support for the NSA.
7) Although the diplomatic shutdown was necessary, it nonetheless created another problem- signalling to the cell/s that they have, at least to some degree, been detected. In that sense, the US will worry that those terrorists may re-orientate onto another target before they can be detained or confronted. This concern is at the core of why counter-terrorist agencies are traditionally highly reluctant to publicize warnings on suspected threats.
* - Assuming it's true, I would like to know how ABC News (see video below) found out that al-Wuhayshi was the subject of a communications intercept. If it is true, it represents another massive leak. Unfortunately, it wouldn't be the first time that some attention seeker has leaked highly classified AQAP related intelligence. Let's be clear, when it comes to the callous and unlawful provision of secret information to outside parties, the consequences are often profoundly negative.
Link page for some of my other MENA security focus pieces.
Sadly it appears that the 'film protests' are continuing unabated. The US Embassy in Yemen is currently under attack and protests are continuing outside our embassy in Cairo. The United States is now being directly challenged. Iran, Assad, Hizballah, Al Qa'ida and every other group that hates America are now watching to see what we do. Here's what we should do.
1) The President should order the deployment of military reinforcements to secure our diplomatic facilities in the region. He has currently sent FAST units, however, this may not be sufficient. The US has considerable military assets in the EUCOM and CENTCOM areas of operation. We should not be afraid to utilize these assets as necessary.Our response should also involve tightening security procedures at diplomatic facilities in states like Indonesia and Pakistan - which may face protests after tomorrow's Friday prayers. The key is that we ensure we are able to protect our diplomats and our facilities. Secretary of State Clinton must require that host nation security forces are provided to defend our diplomats.
2) The President should unequivocally (and angrily) condemn the violent reaction that has followed reporting on this film. His speech yesterday was not sufficient. There is no excuse for the kind of violence that we have seen. This film was produced by a private group of individuals in the conduct of free speech. Free speech defines America. We must stand up for this right while emphasizing that the US govt. had nothing to do with the film. Where there is positive regard for the United States in the Middle East, in large part this feeling stems from a high regard for our freedoms. The President must condemn those who violently protest as morally pathetic human beings. They need to be called out for their repellent ideology.
3) The President should take substantive action to bring to justice those responsible for the Benghazi bombing. This should include the application of military force if targets can be identified (for example in the Libyan desert). The US is currently appearing impotent and weak in the Middle East. From my perspective, this is in part a result of the President's appearance of timidity on Iran. Whether this is a fair perception or not, appearance is as, if not more important than reality when it comes to Middle Eastern political dynamics.
This is somewhat personal to me, my father was a diplomat with State and my grandfather was a US Marine. We need to make sure we protect our citizens.
Senator Feinstein is correct to call for a criminal investigation into leaks surrounding the latest AQAP plot. As I previously noted, the leaked information is serious in nature. Their are few intelligence failures as problematic as ones that compromise the source identity of an allied foreign agent. Whoever leaked this information is likely a TS/SCI security clearance holder and therefore someone who should be capable of absolute discretion in protecting classified material. A level of discretion that requires individuals to concern themselves with national security and not the pursuit of media glamor. The American people and our foreign partners deserve better.
US Government sources are confirming reports that US/allied Intelligence services have foiled a terrorist plot form-similar to that of the Abdulmutallab attack. While (at the time of this post) the story is still breaking, I believe there are a number of early observations that can be drawn.
1) If the plot did originate from Al Qa'ida in the Arabian Peninsula (AQAP) and out of Yemen, then there is further clear evidence to suggest that AQAP is now, at least in operational terms, the pre-eminent Al Qa'ida franchise. US intelligence/DoD are already dedicating substantial resources towards actively engaging AQAP. This latest plot will only heighten those efforts. Yemen is a state that suffers fundamental socio-political instability. Alongside Yemen's growing water crisis and combined with a young, generally poor population, AQAP will find increasingly positive recruiting conditions in human despair. US efforts in Yemen must therefore be focused in a joined kinetic (force application) and non-kinetic (civil development, economic support, political mediation, democracy promotion) strategy to prevent Yemen from becoming a failed state.
2) If the plot did involve another human borne improvised explosive device (suicide bomber), then there is a notable trend developing on the part of AQAP's attack methodology. In addition to Abdulmutallab's attack, in 2009, AQAP, using the brother of Ibrahim al-Asiri (see point 3), attempted to assassinate a Saudi prince via an internal body IED. Because suicide bombers are notoriously difficult to detect, their employment presents a very popular option for terrorist organisations. Regardless, the fact that this latest plot reportedly involved a unusually advanced device using a non-metallic template, presents a further cause for concern. In basic terms, by removing or reducing detectable components of an explosive device, that device becomes far easier to conceal during a search. This development reduces the probability that prevention tools (for example, metal detectors) would be able to identify an attacker. It thus increases the chance of a successful attack.
3) The creativity/sophistication of the plot suggests that AQAP bomb maker, Ibrahim al-Asiri, played an important role in constructing this device. If this is the case, addressing the threat that he poses will become a top US counter-terrorism priority. Capable and resourceful ideological absolutists, like al-Asiri, are the key to successful Al Qa'ida plots. Khalid Sheik Mohammed provides evidence of what can happen when these individuals remain in action.
4) While some will argue that this latest plot is designed to maintain the domestic 'fear narrative' (IE - that the US wants to maintain public fear of terrorist groups in order to continue a hidden, unjustifiable deviant agenda etc.), the truth is that the violent threat posed by groups like AQAP remains real. The US is at war with Al Qa'ida and AQ affiliates. While the Galula approach remains true, irreconcilable actors like those who planned this attack must be confronted. My related links.
1) Yemen is on the verge of becoming a failed state. AQAP will be loving the current situation. Yemen's water problems are a major, major issue.
2) The House of Reps is right to be angry with Obama on Libya. He has ignored them, ignored the war powers resolution and ignored the need for the development and implementation of a clear, defined and effective mission plan. It is surprising that Obama who was supposedly going to be a more consensual and less executive focused leader has been so willing to ignore congress.
3) The US must put more pressure on the Maliki government to treat protesters with fairness and dignity.
5) The real problem in reconstruction efforts for Afghanistan is a lack of collaboration between different government agencies combined with a lack of oversight and planning.
6) Really can't see how this is any different to Obama's plan. Obviously Obama also knows that Israel cannot negotiate on the issue of its jewish statehood.
7) Once again.. on the Babar Ahmad trial the CPS brought a case to trial that had no merit.
1) The ongoing Twitter saga is interesting. David Cameron has now come out against the injunctions. The New York Times seems to think that it is unlikely that Twitter will co-operate with attempts by the English courts to access the personal details of the 'tweeters'. I hope Twitter tell the High Court to f**k off. If you are in the public eye and you base your public image (and earning power) upon the visage of an honorable family man focused only on athletic excellence, but are in fact engaging in a long term affair, the public must be allowed to judge you on the truth. If you want privacy then go live in a box.
3) A shame that Mitch Daniels is out of the Presidential race. However, Tim Pawlenty's announcement ad is pretty good. I want him to win the nomination (not just because of the ad!!).
4) Yemen's problems are only going to grow. The country has no water, demographics that do not suggest political stability (very young population) and is fragmented along deep political divisions. A wonderful place for Al Qa'ida to reconstitute its Arabian operations.
5) Rumsfeld is right about the White House and Bin Laden.
6) Michelle Bachmann is an embarrassment to our democracy. This ad sums up why. Bachmann relies upon people who take comfort in locking themselves in a specific understanding of the world. I had a debate with one such individual yesterday in the comments below a Naples News article.
7) Red Sox played very well last night. Very disappointing that Blackpool were relegated from the premier league. I hope Ian Holloway gets a premier league job soon. Great guy.
