On Tuesday, Mike Pompeo effectively launched his 2024 bid for president.
The secretary of state did so with his response to a question as to whether the State Department would support Joe Biden's transition team as the Democrat prepares to take office. Pompeo was asked by a reporter, "Is the State Department currently preparing to engage with the Biden transition team? And if not, at what point does a delay hamper a smooth transition or pose a risk to national security?"
With a choice of words that will warm the hearts of President Trump and the most loyal people of his base, Pompeo responded, "There will be a smooth transition to a second Trump administration." Pompeo then assured the press that whoever was president on Jan. 20, 2021, would be supported by an effective transition prior to that time. "I'm very confident," the secretary said, "that we will do all the things necessary to continue to perform its national security function as we go forward." Asked a follow-up question, Pompeo affirmed that all the votes had to be counted before the winner could be confirmed.
But here's the thing. The equivocation here is clearly designed as a play to Trump's base. There is no identified systemic evidence of voter fraud or credible assessments that outstanding votes can save Trump's prospects. By playing to that idea even if implicitly, Pompeo undermines the transition process. Pompeo is a smart guy and a patriot. He knows the importance of maintaining a smooth and peaceful transfer of power. He also almost certainly knows that Biden will enter office on Jan. 20. Trump's campaign has been unable to show electoral fraud or other breaches of electoral law that rise to a scale or quality which would endanger Biden's voting lead. The Supreme Court is highly unlikely to take up a Trump campaign legal challenge, and even if it did, I venture that the most likely vote would be 8-1 or 7-2 in Biden's favor, if not unanimous. Perhaps Pompeo means that he will support a transition process when all of the votes are finally counted next week. But we don't know that. And in that condition of doubt, Pompeo suggests he will stick with whatever Trump directs. Moreover, even if it was a joke, why didn't Pompeo avoid the joke and the inevitable doubt it will spur?
The obvious answer is that the non-joke/joke was good for 2024-minded Pompeo. After all, loyalty is unusually prized within the Trump inner circle. Showing loyalty now, Pompeo hopes to reap the dividends in New Hampshire, Iowa, and Kansas, come the 2023 GOP primaries. But it's bad for the United States. The key is this: Trump has given no indication that he will ever concede. Even if Pompeo meant his comment as a joke, the secretary of state should not be playing to Trump's narrative that his reelection victory is a foregone conclusion. Because the available evidence patently suggests the opposite is true. Adopting this approach, Pompeo leads his foreign counterparts to hedge in their confidence in America's stable transition of power. He also risks implying that there will be retaliation for those who now seek dialogue with Biden's team.
I suspect that Pompeo has weighed those concerns against what he sees as a greater prize: winning the 2024 Republican presidential nomination. Pompeo's presidential ambitions have long been rumored. All broader ramifications aside, this action certainly advances Pompeo's position with what is likely to be a crowded 2024 Republican primary presidential field.
We will have to wait and see if the gambit pays off.
