Israel is highly unlikely to launch military strikes against Iran's nuclear program before President Trump leaves office.
Some European officials apparently believe differently. Speaking to Business Insider, three security officials suggest that Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu might view the final two months of Trump's presidency as his last chance to eliminate Iran's nuclear program, with assurance of U.S. military support in the aftermath. But while it's true that President-elect Joe Biden is likely to be a more skeptical Israeli partner on Iran than is Trump, Israel won't judge a military strike in its interests.
For a start, any military action would be counter to Israeli interests unless it had a high probability of heavily degrading Iran's nuclear program for several years. The Israeli military cannot offer Netanyahu and Defense Minister Benny Gantz this assessment. That's because success would mean destroying the vast majority of Iranian uranium enrichment sites, research centers, and centrifuge production facilities. And that means Israel would need to rely on American bunker-buster munitions such as the Massive Ordnance Penetrator. The Trump administration has not authorized the sale of those weapons. In addition, there is no guarantee that even if these weapons were sold and then used against Iran's most hardened sites, such as at Natanz, they would achieve their intended effect.
As an extension, destroying Iran's nuclear program would also likely require a ground force component. Too many of the most sensitive Iranian nuclear sites are now hardened against air and missile strikes. To truly cripple Iran's nuclear program, Israeli ground forces would have to gain entry to those facilities. And that would require persistent air cover and air-to-ground support presence for the duration of the operation. This is something that the Israeli Air Force could not do without U.S. military support. Put simply, the Israeli Air Force is just too small in its size and range of necessary assets.
Then there's the broader Israeli strategic concern. Namely, that absent American military support, Iran would not be deterred from either sustained and significant retaliation and reconstructing its nuclear program with a more concerted emphasis on nuclear weaponization.
Considering that Israel is a democracy in which the politicians are ultimately accountable to the people, neither Netanyahu nor his coalition partner, Gantz, want to be in a situation in which ballistic missiles are raining down on Dimona, Tel Aviv, Haifa, and West Jerusalem. Especially, that is, if Iran's nuclear program has not been destroyed and much of the world is blaming Israel for the crisis. The Trump campaign's legal adventures aside, Netanyahu knows that Joe Biden is set to enter office come January. He needs Biden's positive response to his very legitimate concerns about the condition of Iran's nuclear program and Saudi countermeasures. That's not going to be easy if Iran is blowing stuff up and Biden blames Bibi.
Despite his reputation as a hardliner, Netanyahu is actually fairly risk averse. He has avoided a major military strike against Iran despite a decade of rumors that he was on the cusp of authorizing a mission.
All of this takes us back to the instrumentality of U.S. military support to any strike. Put simply, the Israeli government knows that it needs the U.S. president firmly on its side before it undertook a bombing campaign. The exception here is an Iranian rush to weaponization — which would engender Israeli fears of an imminent second Holocaust and unilateral preemptive action. Trump has not given Israel that assurance of support and, considering his reaffirmed interest in ending Middle East wars, whatever the costs, he is highly unlikely to do so.
Expect continued Israeli covert action and military strikes against Iranian positions in Syria and Lebanon. But don't look for strikes on Iran's nuclear program before Jan. 20, 2021.
