Chancellor Angela Merkel of Germany woke up to a crisis.
Storming out of coalition formation talks with Merkel's CDU party and the Green Party on Sunday, the leader of Germany's pro-business FDP party declared "It is better not to rule than to rule badly. Goodbye!"
That's a big problem for Merkel — with the FDP departing and the main opposition SPD party refusing coalition talks, the chancellor won't be able to form a new coalition government. And if forming a coalition from the results of September's election isn't possible, Merkel must either form a new government, rule in a minority government that would almost certainly implode under its own weakness, or call an election.
In turn, unless the FDP can be drawn back into talks with the CDU and Greens, the most likely scenario is another election in January.
That's bad news for the chancellor.
If an election is the only answer to break the political logjam, Merkel may be pushed to resign so that another CDU candidate can lead the party into the new vote. Desperate to win back voters who abandoned the CDU in September, the CDU elite may believe a fresh face is necessary to offer a clean slate to the electorate.
Unfortunately for Merkel, increasing numbers of Germans see her leadership as unbending and worn out. While the 12-year chancellor has a supremely impressive economic record to her name, she has suffered public anger over her immigration and Greek debt bailout policies.
The refugee concern is especially pronounced in that many conservatives believe Merkel was fundamentally wrong to allow more than 1 million refugees to settle in their country.
When the results came in following September's election, it was clear that Merkel had been punished for her policies. As I noted then, Merkel faced a profound challenge of credibility that could only be ameliorated by an effective governing agreement.
Of course, now that seems impossible.
Who might replace Merkel if she goes? Well, I think three top CDU prospects are the highly-popular finance minister, Wolfgang Schauble, the defense minister, Ursula von der Leyen, and the upstart CDU radical, Jens Spahn. In my view, the 75 year-old Schauble would be the best choice and would likely serve if only to drag Germany out of the present political mess.
Regardless, Merkel is in trouble. We'll see what happens.