Fewer children, more sadness, more suicide

A dark story is emerging from China: “The suicide rate among 5- to 14-year-olds in China quadrupled between 2010 and 2021,” Chinese media reports.

China’s horrific COVID deaths and lockdowns are surely part of this, but we shouldn’t take our eyes off of the demographic roots of this anxiety and anomie.

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The One Child Policy drove birthrates below two per woman, but since the family curbs have been liberalized and eventually repealed, birthrates have not rebounded. Birthrates have been below the replacement level for 30 years, and China’s population has begun shrinking.

Sociologists sometimes talk about a new demographic equilibrium in wealthy countries, with parents choosing lower quantity, higher “quality” parenting. “Quality” parenting, according to this definition, involves the massive investment of time and money into the success of your one or two children.

Would it be surprising if such parenting created anxious teenagers?

A China with fewer children appears to be a China with fewer happy children.

Japan, whose Baby Bust has gone on long enough that it is now depopulating despite very long lifespans, is infamous for suicides. Suicide is a leading cause of death among young adults and teenagers in Japan, which even has a suicide forest.

In South Korea, where suicides are also very high, the problem appears to be among the elderly. This is connected to low birthrates, too, as many of the elderly do not have children or grandchildren to take care of them.

Researchers, for decades, have found that low birthrates go together with high suicide rates, and vice-versa. Here’s a 1992 study in the Journal of Biosocial Science: “In a time series study of the USA from 1933 to 1984, fertility rates were associated with the suicide rates of those aged 15-44. The higher the fertility rate the lower the suicide rate for these age groups, for both whites and non-whites, and for both men and women.”

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A 2008 study across 80 countries found specifically that among the elderly, fewer children meant more suicide. A 2017 worldwide study found “a negative significant correlation between total suicide rate with total fertility rate.”

Americans are having fewer babies every year, and while most folks are looking for ways to remedy this, many simply say it’s not a problem. But it is a problem: A society with fewer babies and fewer children is a sadder society. China is showing that today in a gruesome way.