The Knesset parliament of Israel enacted a controversial judicial reform law with a 64-0 vote on Monday. The opposition left the chamber in protest, allowing members of Prime Minister Benjamin Netanyahu's coalition to provide unitary assent. The law means that Israel's Supreme Court will no longer be able to rule against parliamentary or executive action on the basis of that action being "unreasonable."
The moral and political impact of this law is exaggerated. While many of those now protesting on Israeli streets argue that this change threatens their democracy, there is an equally strong case to be made that some reform was needed. After all, is it right or even democratic that an unelected Supreme Court can obstruct an elected government's actions based only on the Court's subjective view of those actions as "unreasonable"? As a side note, this saga is yet another argument in favor of a written Constitution in which the Supreme Court rules on the compatibility of legislation to primary law.
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That said, other proposed legal changes by Netanyahu's government are far more concerning. As far-right coalition member, Itamar Ben Gvir put it on Monday, "There are many more laws we need to pass as part of the judicial overhaul." These include pending efforts to reshape how the court's judges are selected and to allow parliamentary overrule of Supreme Court judgments. Were these reforms to proceed, they would render Israel's top court a neutered entity.
It's also clear that Netanyahu is weak.
The prime minister's far-right coalition members know that they can bring down Netanyahu's government at any time. Threatening Netanyahu's viability as prime minister if he refuses them, they will use this victory to push for more aggressive action in more sensitive areas of law and politics. Netanyahu's ensuing problem is twofold.
First, the more he yields to this fringe but powerful element of his coalition, the more he risks exacerbating growing divisions in Israeli civil society. Tens of thousands of Israelis protested the passage of the first judicial reform bill on Monday. Hundreds of skilled Israeli military reservists are also threatening to refuse orders. This discord threatens Israel's stability.
In addition, Netanyahu also risks great damage to Israel's international relationships if he allows his coalition to drive policy in relation to the Palestinians and Israel's Arab neighbors. Playing to the worst biases of anti-Israel international bodies, numerous members of Netanyahu's coalition are openly racist in their views and preference for indiscriminate violence against Palestinians in the West Bank. They risk both the Israeli and U.S. relationships with Jordan and other Arab nations to pursue their ideological vendettas. Netanyahu's extenuating problem is that he's already in a weakened position with the U.S.
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Of particular Israeli consternation is the Biden administration's continued dedication to appeasing Iran. Biden is failing to consolidate Israeli deterrence against Ayatollah Ali Khamenei's nuclear program. At the same time, however, Netanyahu's effort to strengthen ties with China is a growing concern for both parties in Congress. Even status quo Israeli tech cooperation with China should be a red line for the U.S., let alone the improved cooperation that Netanyahu apparently seeks.
Top line: When it comes to Netanyahu's government, Monday's legislative victory is only the harbinger of far riskier political icebergs.