Last Monday, Russia exited a deal that allowed Ukraine to export its grain products through the Black Sea to the global market. Russia is now targeting Ukrainian grain storage facilities with heavy air and drone strikes.
In turn, it's clear that Vladimir Putin is escalating his aggression toward Ukraine. The Russian president is also showing his increased tolerance for confrontation with the West.
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Russian strikes overnight Sunday-Monday targeted Ukrainian grain depots in the Black Sea city of Odesa and the Danube River city of Reni. Of particular note, Reni is less than 0.7 kilometers from the Romanian shores of the Danube River. And Romania is a member of NATO. It could activate the alliance's Article 5 mutual defense commitment if attacked.
While Russia used Iranian-made drones for the strikes on Reni, the targeting of a city so close to NATO territory cannot be coincidental. Until now, Russia has made significant effort to avoid a miscalculation that might lead to a confrontation with NATO's 31 member states. Alongside his deployment of nuclear weapons to Belarus, Putin's strikes on Reni suggest he wants to test NATO's resolve. Putin is under unprecedented pressure at home as well as in his Ukraine war effort. He wants to regain the strategic initiative.
These attacks serve another purpose for Putin. By destroying 60,000 tons of Ukrainian grain in just a few days, Putin is weakening a key export sector of the fragile Ukrainian economy. He is also spiking global grain prices upwards while simultaneously offering Russian agricultural exports as substitutes for those from Ukraine.
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To be sure, Putin is playing a dangerous game. He is undermining any remaining moral pretense that Moscow retains with its foreign partners in Africa, Asia, and the Middle East. He is also clearly putting Russia's narrow short-term interests before those nations, many of which rely on Ukrainian grain, jeopardizing his reputation as a reliable partner.
At the same time, however, what Putin fears most is being seen as weak or at the mercy of the strategy of others. These strikes help deflect that image.