On Monday, shortly after Ukraine attacked the Kerch Bridge connecting the Crimean Peninsula and the Russian mainland, Russia suspended a major grain export arrangement in the Black Sea.
That agreement allowed Ukraine to supply its grain exports out of the Black Sea without transport ships being targeted by the Russian navy. As the BBC succinctly notes, "The grain deal is important as Ukraine is one of the world's largest exporters of sunflower, maize, wheat and barley."
Vladimir Putin claimed that the deal suspension is necessary because Russia's own agricultural exports are being unfairly targeted by international sanctions. This is not accurate. Russian agriculture exports soared in 2022-2023. What Putin really wants here is to leverage a continuation of the grain deal in order to extract concessions in other areas. Russia is particularly keen on receiving sanctions relief on certain banks.
WHY UKRAINE'S CRIMEA BRIDGE STRIKE IS A PROBLEM FOR RUSSIA
The problem for Putin is that while he has perhaps gained new leverage in his favor, he is simultaneously jeopardizing Russia's already frail international position. The perception that Russia is preventing food exports is not an easy one for Moscow to justify. It plays to the broader understanding of Russia's war in Ukraine being wholly illegitimate. It comes across as callous and brutal.
CLICK HERE TO READ MORE FROM THE WASHINGTON EXAMINER
Of even more concern for Moscow, however, is the risk that this suspension will damage relations with Russian partners in the Middle East and Africa.
Putin has prioritized these relationships, particularly in the Middle East. He will not easily be able to justify why he is now risking the access of those nations to food supplies. He will not easily be able to justify rising food export prices (although Russian exporters may gain some benefit). When it comes to the African Union, for example, Putin risks encouraging a more hawkish stance by African governments over the war in Ukraine. Until now, those governments have been reluctant to exert more than mild private pressure on Moscow in relation to the war.
Put simply, Putin is risking a lot in order to, at best, gain relatively little. The risks of this course of action are significant for Russia. The U.S. and its partners should thus reject Russia's brinkmanship, instead forcing Putin to contemplate the pressure his policy shift will cause for him. That's the best way to ensure Russia restores this grain deal in short order.