Democrats have a slight advantage over Republicans when it comes to the Electoral College vote in 2024, according to the first predictions out of the nonpartisan Cook Political Report.
The initial predictions for the 2024 presidential election give Democrats 247 electoral votes compared to 235 for Republicans, putting Democrats closer to the 270-vote threshold needed to clinch the presidency. However, another 56 electoral votes are considered to be toss-ups, putting the White House in either party’s reach.
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Four states are considered to be toss-ups headed into the 2024 cycle: Pennsylvania, Wisconsin, Arizona, and Georgia. Those states are expected to be determined by suburban, centrists, and Latino voters, especially for those who may be first-time voters, according to the report.
However, those states may also be significantly upended by the presence of a third-party candidate should one make it on the ballot. So far, there is no major candidate running as an alternative, but the third-party No Labels group has teased a bipartisan ticket in 2024. Democratic Sen. Joe Manchin of West Virginia has also flirted with a possible third-party bid.
At least three states are considered to be tightly contested. That includes Michigan and Nevada, which lean Democrat, and North Carolina, which is expected to lean Republican.
Analysts are also keeping their eyes on Florida, which has an initial rating of “likely Republican.” However, that rating could change to “solid Republican” if Democrats choose not to pour much campaign money into the state or spend much time campaigning there, according to the report.
The new ratings give the first glimpse into the 2024 battleground as presidential candidates seek to determine which states should receive the most of their attention as they vie for their party’s nominations.
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So far, there are 12 candidates running for the GOP nomination, including former President Donald Trump, who has dominated the field as an early front-runner. He faces candidates such as Gov. Ron DeSantis (R-FL), who is considered to be his top challenger, as well as other high-profile Republicans, including Nikki Haley, Mike Pence, and Chris Christie.
Two Democrats have launched bids against President Joe Biden, who is seeking reelection to the White House in 2024. Biden has dominated the polls, outperforming Robert F. Kennedy Jr. and Marianne Williamson.