When Joe Biden tapped Kamala Harris to be his running mate in 2020, it was perhaps the most easily predicted vice presidential choice in recent memory. Biden had made it clear that after emerging from the most diverse Democratic presidential candidate field in history, he would select a woman to join him on the ticket. The dynamics of the Democratic Party, which relies heavily on the votes of African American women to win elections, made it seem likely that Biden would select a running mate from this demographic group, especially as the murder of George Floyd brought race issues to the top of the public agenda. She is also the first Asian American to be nominated on a major presidential ticket or serve as vice president. For her part, Harris brought a number of traits to the ticket other than her race and gender — first and foremost, her high profile as a first-term senator who was considered a strong candidate for the presidential nomination herself.
Harris’ candidacy was well-received at the time. But since taking office, her vice presidency has been a much bumpier ride. There have been rumblings about Biden replacing her on the ticket in 2024, though this most likely amounts to the usual speculation among pundits while we wait for something real to happen during election season. According to a recent poll, only 13 percent of Democrats would want to see her run in 2024 if Biden were unable to run. And while Harris has struggled with higher net unfavorable ratings than some recent predecessors, no one is exactly sure why. What does political science have to say about this?
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