Sending delegations to North Korea this week, China and Russia are making a show of their support for Kim Jong Un's regime. Both nations want their visits to serve as a rebuke of the United States.
On paper, the purpose of the visits is to celebrate what Pyongyang describes as its victory in the Korean War. Considering that North Korea was unable to accomplish its objective of establishing unitary political control over the Korean peninsula, its claims of victory are spurious at best. Still, this is a chance to show a tripartite alignment against the U.S.-led international order.
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Russian Defense Minister Sergei Shoigu is attending the celebrations. Moscow says this "will help strengthen Russian-North Korean military ties and will be an important stage in the development of cooperation between the two countries." China has sent a senior National People's Congress apparatchik, Li Hongzhong. The decision to send Li, Beijing's Global Times propaganda newspaper claims, "is proof of the unbreakable relationship between China and North Korea." The Global Times added that the U.S. is responsible for Washington's increasing tensions with Pyongyang.
The motives for Moscow and Beijing's public displays of support for Pyongyang are clear.
Alongside its increasing harassment of the U.S. military in Syria, and its support of the People's Liberation Army-Navy, Russia senses an opportunity to stick its finger in America's eye. Moscow is deeply frustrated by continued U.S. support for Ukraine. It wants to take advantage of any opportunity to make Washington uncomfortable. And with Kim Jong Un firing off ballistic missiles and continuing his nuclear weapons developments, Russian support for North Korea certainly makes the U.S. uncomfortable.
China's interest is similar but slightly different.
While China and North Korea have a long-standing political and economic relationship, Beijing wants to show Washington that it can be either a partner or an obstacle to keeping Kim in check. This fits well with Chinese strategy. From climate change to the war in Ukraine, Xi Jinping's regime uses every opportunity it can to leverage its support for Western concerns in return for Western concessions. As I noted in April, Xi has hinted that he intends to use North Korea as a key leveraging chip against the U.S.
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Yet China and Russia play a dangerous game in fueling Kim's tolerance for escalation. Both nations share borders with North Korea, with the Vladivostok home of Russia's Pacific Fleet just 80 miles from North Korea. In the worst-case scenario, a U.S. nuclear exchange with North Korea would very likely cause fallout concerns for both China and Russia. It would also mean a new, pro-Western authority in North Korea.
In that scenario, neither Beijing nor Moscow would have much to celebrate.