Turning 18 means you’ve become an adult. For House Democrats in 2024, the number likely means winning the majority after two years in the political wilderness.
Democrats are gunning for the 18 House seats held by Republicans where, in 2020, President Joe Biden would have beaten former President Donald Trump. That’s compared to only five House seats held by Democrats that Trump won in 2020. Many Democratic target seats are in California and New York, blue bastions where Republicans performed above expectations in 2022.
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House Democrats, of course, have electoral targets beyond the 18 GOP-held seats. But any path to winning the majority they lost in 2022, narrowly, begins there. The House balance of power now is effectively 222-213 in Republicans’ favor, meaning every seat counts.
Here are the 18 Republican-held House seats that would have favored Biden in 2020. Each came into existence in January after redistricting.
Arizona's 1st Congressional District
In his 2024 reelection bid, Rep. David Schweikert (R-AZ) faces continued scandal fallout and a less-friendly district than in his political salad days as a 2010 Tea Party insurgent. In July 2020, the House reprimanded Schweikert for permitting his office to misuse taxpayer dollars, violating campaign reporting requirements, and several other violations of federal law and House rules.
In 2020, Schweikert won reelection in his old, more conservative suburban Phoenix district. But redistricting ahead of the 2022 midterm elections changed the seat’s political complexion to the point that in 2020, Biden would have beaten Trump in the northeastern Phoenix and Scottsdale 1st Congressional District 50.1% to 48.6%. In 2022, Schweikert narrowly staved off a strong challenge from Democratic rival Jevin Hodge.
There’s a crowded Democratic rival seeking the right to challenge Schweikert, with several already hammering the congressman over his admitted ethical lapses. The most prominent Democrat is Andrei Cherny, who has the distinction of being the youngest White House speechwriter in history. Cherny was 21 and straight out of Harvard University when he was hired by President Bill Clinton's administration.
Cherny previously worked as CEO of Aspiration, a sustainability-focused financial services company that bills itself as an alternative to big banks. He co-founded the public policy journal Democracy, which future Sen. Elizabeth Warren (D-MA) at one point used to launch the idea of what would become the Consumer Financial Protection Bureau.
Cherny, additionally, was an officer in the Navy Reserve and an assistant attorney general of Arizona, having earned his law degree at U.C. Berkeley. Cherny is also a former chairman of the Arizona Democratic Party and author of well-received books The Next Deal: The Future of Public Life in the Information Age and The Candy Bombers: The Untold Story of the Berlin Airlift and America's Finest Hour.
Cherny, though, has had less success running for office. In 2002, he lost a Democratic primary for state Assembly in his home state of California. In 2010, he was the unsuccessful Democratic nominee for state treasurer. And in 2012, Cherny came up short in a House Democratic primary against now-Sen. Kyrsten Sinema (I-AZ), who became an independent last December.
Now, Democratic primary rivals in the 1st Congressional District include state Rep. Amish Shah, an emergency room and sports medicine doctor at the Mayo Clinic in Phoenix. There’s Scottsdale orthodontist Andrew Horne and Kurt Kroemer, who recently stepped down after seven years as CEO of Red Cross in Arizona.
Arizona's 6th Congressional District
Democrat Kirsten Engel is seeking a rematch against freshman Republican Rep. Juan Ciscomani in this southeastern Arizona and eastern Tucson-area district. In 2022, Ciscomani beat Engel, a former state senator and environmental lawyer, 50.7%-49.3%. That after national Democratic groups effectively gave up on the race and canceled their planned spending.
Ciscomani, now an incumbent congressman, is seen by GOP leaders in Washington as a rising star. But the likely rematch could be affected considerably by macro political forces. In 2020, Biden became only the second Democratic nominee to win Arizona since 1948, after President Bill Clinton’s 1996 victory. The Grand Canyon State figures to be a fierce presidential battleground, particularly in the 6th Congressional District, where Biden edged out Trump 49.3%-49.2%.
California's 13th District
Democrats see this farming-heavy, mid-Central Valley district as ripe for the picking, with freshman Rep. John Duarte (R-CA) having won in 2020 50.2% to 49.8% — 564 votes out of nearly 134,000 cast — over Democrat Adam Gray. For 2024, Gray is eyeing a rematch, having filed paperwork to run again but not yet announced his candidacy.
Biden would have won this district in 2020 over Trump 54.3% to 43.4%. Still, Duarte, in his first elected office, has shown a knack for retail politicking, meeting countless constituents during his first seven months in office. Moreover, Duarte is a farmer himself, who, in the private sector, tangled with federal authorities over environmental regulations. That puts him in good standing with the district’s business interests. But Democrats are betting increased Latino turnout during a presidential year, rather than lower-voting midterm elections, will help Gray win.
California's 22nd Congressional District
In an unexpected twist, Democratic state Sen. Melissa Hurtado is considering running in this southern Central Valley and eastern Bakersfield-area district. The lone Democrat in the race was thought to be former state Assemblyman Rudy Salas, who recently announced his own congressional bid, following his 52.6% to 48.4% loss to GOP Rep. David Valadao last year. That in a district where, in 2020, Biden would have walloped Trump 55.3% to 42.3%.
Hurtado won her state Senate seat in 2018 by beating a Republican incumbent. She survived her 2022 reelection bid by only 13 votes out of nearly 137,000 cast.
Still, Murtado would have a big factor in her favor. Because state Senate districts in California are so enormous — there are only 40 senators compared to the 52 House members the Golden State sends to Washington — Hurtado already represents 96% of the 22nd Congressional District. But she and Salas have reputations as relative centrists, having bucked Democratic legislative leaders in Sacramento on some water and environmental issues, among others.
California's 27th Congressional District
Democrats remain vexed at losing three straight times to Rep. Mike Garcia (R-CA) in this exurban and high-desert district spanning Santa Clarita, Lancaster, and Palmdale in Northern Los Angeles County. After all, Biden would have won there over Trump in 2020 by 55.1% to 42.7%.
Garcia has proven a good fit for the district. The Naval Academy graduate, former fighter pilot, and aerospace engineer overlap professionally with many constituents in this district heavy with active-duty and retired military service members. Garcia also has proven an affable campaigner attentive to local needs, even if his House voting record is to the right of many in the district.
Democratic strategists, though, are optimistic about their chances with former Virgin Galactic CEO George Whitesides. He was NASA's chief of staff during President Barack Obama’s administration. Whitesides spent a decade leading Virgin Galactic, which aims to send paying passengers on space tourism flights.
California's 40th Congressional District
Rep. Young Kim (R-CA) is running for reelection in this politically competitive district covering eastern Orange County as well as portions of western San Bernardino and Riverside counties.
Kim, one of two South Korean-born Republican female House members along with Rep. Michelle Steel of Orange County, was previously a state assemblywoman. She beat a Democratic House member in 2020 and won reelection in a high-spending 2022 campaign.
In 2020, Biden would have beaten Trump in the 40th Congressional District 49.9% to 48.0%. However, Republicans have the advantage in the district, with nearly 38% registered voters compared to Democrats’ 33.6% and the 22.6% who list no party preference.
Democratic candidates include retired Fire Captain Joe Kerr. He’s a second-generation firefighter who served with the Orange County Fire Authority and Orange County Fire Department for over 30 years. Another Democrat running is Tustin Unified School District trustee Allyson Muniz Damikolas, who was elected in 2020 as the school board’s first Latina Democrat.
California's 45th Congressional District
The inland Orange County district represented by Steel covers once deep-red Republican territory and is now among the most politically competitive House seats in California. Steel won her second term in the 2022 midterm elections over Democrat Jay Chen with 53.6% of the vote. But Biden would have prevailed there easily in 2020 over Trump, 52.1% to 46%.
Garden Grove Councilwoman Kim Bernice Nguyen was the first Democrat to declare for the seat. She was joined in recent months by two other Democratic candidates, attorney and progressive activist Cheyenne Hunt and Aditya Pai, 31, a Harvard Law School graduate who was born in India.
Nebraska's 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Don Bacon (R-NE) has sizzled in his reelection bids since beating an incumbent Democratic House member in 2016. The affable lawmaker and retired U.S. Air Force brigadier general has remained popular in this greater Omaha-area swing district, where, in 2020, Biden would have won over Trump, 52.2% to 45.8%.
In 2024, Bacon faces a rematch against Democratic state Sen. Tony Vargas, whom he beat in 2022 51.3% to 48.6%. The presidential race will also likely affect the House contest outcome, since Nebraska awards an Electoral College vote to the winner in each of its three congressional districts, as well as two electoral votes to the winner statewide. In 2020, Trump won statewide easily over Biden.
New Jersey's 7th Congressional District
Rep. Tom Kean Jr. (R-NJ) beat an incumbent Democrat in 2022 to claim this southwestern New York City suburbs and exurbs district. The race marked his fourth try to reach Congress, going back to 2000. It’s an open question how tough of a Democratic opponent Kean will face in his first reelection bid, in a district where in 2020, Biden would have beat Trump 51.1% to 47.3%.
Democrats may be hurting themselves in this swing district by coalescing around a doyenne of New Jersey’s hard Left, activist Sue Altman. She leads the state’s liberal-leaning Working Families Alliance and is an ally of Democratic Gov. Phil Murphy.
Kean is a son and namesake of a popular former governor. A former state lawmaker, in Congress, Kean has been careful to steer clear of the House Freedom Caucus and other more conservative lawmakers. The race’s outcome will likely be affected by presidential race turnout or lack thereof.
New York's 1st Congressional District
On paper, freshman Rep. Nick LaLota (R-NY) should be among the more vulnerable House Republicans. The 1st Congressional District, spanning Eastern Long Island and the north shore of Suffolk County, would have backed Biden over Trump, albeit narrowly — 49.5% to 49.3%.
But LaLota, a Naval Academy graduate who went on to serve three deployments overseas, has played up his centrist credentials. And he has been one of the fiercest critics of his fabulist House Republican freshman colleague from Long Island, Rep. George Santos. So far, no major Democratic opponents against LaLota have surfaced.
Yet that doesn’t mean LaLota, nor several other House Republicans from New York, are safe. Democratic legislators in Albany are looking to upend the current House map from the Empire State. After an initial, aggressive gerrymander was thrown out in court, district lines used in the 2022 midterm elections gave Democrats 15 seats to 11 for Republicans.
LaLota could be a redistricting target, as previous versions of this district have toggled between the parties over the past three decades. Or state Democrats could choose to go after Republican incumbents in already politically more dicey House districts, which would be easier to dismantle.
New York's 3rd Congressional District
Long lines are forming to challenge Santos, both by fellow Republicans and would-be Democratic rivals. Santos became a household name, and not in a good way, when news reports showed after the 2022 midterm elections that he made numerous false or dubious claims about his biography, work history, criminal record, financial status, ethnicity, religion, and other matters, both in public and in private.
Santos is subject to a House Ethics Committee investigation and a regular Democratic target of expulsion efforts. House Speaker Kevin McCarthy (R-CA) has said he hopes Santos is denied renomination. Several Republicans are eyeing primary challenges to Santos. On the Democratic side, two major candidates are in — former state Sen. Anna Kaplan and Nassau County legislator Josh Lafazan.
In 2020, Biden would have won the 3rd Congressional District 53.6% to 45.4%. The district covers northern Nassau County, including the affluent city of Great Neck, stretching west into the New York City borough of Queens.
New York's 4th Congressional District
Freshman Republican Rep. Anthony D’Esposito is in his first reelection bid in this southern Nassau County district, where Biden would have prevailed over Trump 56.8% to 42.2%. That makes it among the bluest House seats held by a Republican.
Attorney Sarah Hughes, who won a gold medal for figure skating in an upset at the 2002 Olympics, is seeking the Democratic nomination for the right to challenge D’Esposito, a former New York City police detective. Hughes entered the race shortly after Laura Gillen, who lost to D'Esposito 52%-48% last year, launched her rematch campaign.
New York's 17th Congressional District
Freshman Rep. Mike Lawler (R-NY) has been a top Democratic topic since his 2022 upset of Rep. Sean Patrick Maloney (D-NY), who chaired his party’s House campaign arm. Lawler’s win in the Lower Hudson Valley 17th Congressional District was a high-profile piece of an election cycle that saw Republican candidates pick up several New York seats.
Still, Democrats see Lawler as effectively renting the seat for two years because in 2020, Biden would have beaten Trump there 54.5% to 44.4%. And former Rep. Mondaire Jones (D-NY) is seeking to return to Congress by running there after representing a neighboring House district in 2021-23.
Jones’s old district was made up of Putnam and Rockland counties, as well as a sliver of Dutchess County and a much larger chunk of Westchester County. After New York’s messy redistricting process, then-Rep. Maloney, while leading the Democratic Congressional Campaign Committee, opted to run in the new 17th District rather than seek reelection in the 18th District that he had represented for 10 years.
Rather than challenge Maloney, Jones decided to run in New York's 10th District, based in lower Manhattan and Brooklyn, but lost in the Democratic primary to now-Rep. Dan Goldman.
Jones isn’t the only Democrat seeking the Democratic nomination. So is Liz Whitmer Gereghty, a small-businesswoman and former school board member who is also the sister of Gov. Gretchen Whitmer (D-MI).
New York's 19th Congressional District
Rep. Marc Molinaro (R-NY), first elected in 2022 to this southeastern New York state seat, is likely to face a strong Democratic challenge in November 2024. In 2020, the district would have favored Biden over Trump 51.3% to 46.7%.
Molinaro’s vanquished 2022 Democratic rival, attorney and former congressional aide Josh Riley, is running again. His campaign, like other New York Democrats, will need strong turnout in the presidential race to help push him over the top.
New York's 22nd Congressional District
This Syracuse and Utica-area district has pockets of both blue and red allegiances. Freshman Rep. Brandon Williams capitalized on Republicans’ good 2022 fortunes in New York to claim this seat, running up the score in rural areas outside of its midsized cities.
Democrats, though, point to the edge Biden would have had over Trump there in 2020, 51.6% to 45.2%. So far, the Democratic candidate field includes DeWitt Town Councilwoman Sarah Klee Hood and state Sen. John Mannion.
Oregon's 5th Congressional District
This southern Portland suburbs and central Oregon district is looking to be a closely fought contest next year, both in the general election and Democratic primary.
Biden would have won there in 2020 over Trump 53.2% to 44.4%, and voter registration leans Democratic by 5 percentage points.
However, Rep. Lori Chavez-DeRemer (R-OR) pulled off a narrow win in 2022 in the newly drawn district. Her vanquished Democratic opponent, attorney Jamie McLeod-Skinner, is running against her yet again. McLeod-Skinner had beat Rep. Kurt Schrader in the 2022 Democratic primary, labeling him too conservative and close to business interests.
Also seeking the Democratic nomination is Lynn Peterson, chairwoman of the Metro Council, elected by voters through the Multnomah-Washington-Clackamas county area in the Portland suburbs. There’s also state Rep. Janelle Bynum, who has the distinction of having beat now-Rep. Chavez-DeRemer in two races for the state House. That electoral history is a top talking point for Bynum’s candidacy.
Pennsylvania's 1st Congressional District
Rep. Brian Fitzpatrick (R-PA) is seeking reelection in this northern Philadelphia suburbs district against his vanquished 2022 Democratic opponent, Ashley Ehasz. In 2020, the district would have favored Biden over Trump 51.8% to 47.2%. Last year, however, Ehasz lost 55% to 45% after playing up her support for abortion rights and control.
Whether prospects for Ehasz, a West Point graduate, are better in a presidential year remains to be seen. Fitzpatrick is a retired FBI agent whose relatively centrist political stances play well in the region. Pennsylvania is a political wild card because it will be a top emphasis of the likely presidential nominees, Biden and Trump, whose campaign ads will flood the airwaves and could help motivate voters on both sides.
Virginia's 2nd Congressional District
Rep. Jen Kiggans (R-VA) looks to be in good shape for reelection in this suburban Hampton Roads district. In 2022, Kiggans beat Democratic Rep. Elaine Luria, a member of the Jan. 6 committee and a fellow Navy veteran.
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So far, no major Democratic candidates have emerged to challenge Kiggans in the district, where in 2020, Biden would have beaten Trump 50.1% to 48.2%. Still, Kiggans is clearly mindful of the district's swing nature. In a July 25 fundraising email, Kiggans pushed back on the notion of cutting social insurance programs.
“As a geriatric nurse practitioner, I know how vital Social Security and Medicare are to our seniors and their well-being. Now, I’m taking that level of care to Congress: I’ve proudly thrown my support behind legislation to protect Social Security and Medicare,” Kiggans wrote.