Former Secretary of State John Kerry is now the Biden administration's climate envoy. In that capacity, he is traveling to China on Sunday for three days of talks. Recognizing China is by far and away the world's largest carbon emitter, Kerry wants to reenergize suspended Sino-American engagement on this issue.
Unfortunately, this is not a visit that should engender our confidence.
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Kerry has long made clear that he views climate change as the most important issue in U.S. foreign policy. Many in the Democratic Party share his perspective. He has repeatedly shown a willingness to prioritize climate change cooperation at the expense of all other concerns. This is a serious problem. Considering China's vast portfolio of dirty coal plants, Beijing has hefty prospective leverage to earn Kerry's misguided supplication.
Kerry's penchant for playing to Beijing's strategy was most evident in a September 2021 interview.
Asked how he would balance China-related human rights concerns with his climate agenda, he responded, "Life is always full of tough choices." The former senator from Massachusetts then observed how then-President Ronald Reagan sought arms control cooperation with Soviet General Secretary Mikhail Gorbachev even as he labeled the Soviet Union an "evil empire." Unlike Kerry and Xi Jinping's human rights malaise, however, Reagan was unequivocal in his overt condemnation of the Soviet Union's moral bankruptcy. Reagan wasn't willing to stay silent simply in order to win Gorbachev's favor.
There's a broader risk that Kerry simply doesn't recognize China's duplicitous approach toward climate change. In 2021, Kerry recounted his response to Chinese officials who complained about U.S. policy in other areas. "Hey, look, climate is not ideological," Kerry told them. "It’s not partisan, it’s not a geostrategic weapon or tool, and it’s certainly not day-to-day politics. It’s a global, not bilateral, challenge." Kerry might see climate change that way, and most international diplomats might see climate change that way, but the Chinese communists do not.
Instead, Xi's regime views climate change as a key mechanism to extract concessions from the U.S. in other fields. Beijing doesn't hide this strategy. China's West-facing propaganda newspaper, the Global Times, made clear on Wednesday that Kerry could forget about new Chinese carbon reduction efforts unless he offered U.S. concessions on other issues. The newspaper put it bluntly, "If the U.S. shows no sincerity in improving ties, then asking China to cooperate on addressing climate issues is like talking the impossible."
This is the way that the Chinese Communist Party does business. Beijing seeks to use every issue and every opportunity to extract maximum benefits for its own interests. The idea of a global commons in which mutual cooperation is justified on the basis of mutual benefit is anathema to Beijing. China's approach to climate issues is only one example of this dynamic. Xi's genocide against his own people, his effort to seize the entirety of the South China Sea (geography underlines this extraordinary imperial gall), and his capricious effort to cajole, steal, and otherwise unjustly secure Western technology are just three other examples.
In turn, Kerry must do more than not yield to Beijing in pursuit of new climate commitments. He must be guarded against even giving Beijing the idea that its minimalist duplicity can succeed.
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Recent weeks have seen trips to Beijing by Secretary of State Antony Blinken and Treasury Secretary Janet Yellen. Commerce Secretary Gina Raimondo is likely to visit in the near future. The maintenance of clear lines of communication between Beijing and Washington is important. Alongside Kerry's visit, however, these successive excursions by senior U.S. officials to Beijing risk suggesting that China has seized the strategic initiative. That perception may undermine the confidence of U.S. allies and partners in support of Washington. It also risks encouraging Beijing to make even grander demands of the U.S.
The key is for Kerry to be clear-sighted. If he can't be clear-sighted, President Joe Biden must be. As Sen. John Kennedy (R-LA) memorably observed in January, belief in Xi's goodwill on climate cooperation is tantamount to believing that Jimmy Hoffa died of natural causes.