Trump Assassination Attempt Poses New Test for U.S. Democracy

Jacob Ware is a research fellow at the Council on Foreign Relations, focusing on domestic and international terrorism and counterterrorism. Together with CFR fellow Bruce Hoffman, he is the author of God, Guns, and Sedition: Far-Right Terrorism in America.

The shooting at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania this week confirmed the concerns you expressed in a recent CFR paper about political violence. As details still emerge, what are the most important next steps for authorities?

Authorities will need to significantly raise their guard against the imminent threats of more violence. President Joe Biden’s announcement of improved security measures around Trump and of reviewed protocols for the Republican convention are welcome first steps. Coordination needs to be improved to ensure gaps in defenses are plugged, and security perimeters will likely broaden after this breach. But most critically, politicians of both major political parties need to commit to more productive and uniting political rhetoric, rather than language that continues to divide Americans.

The attack continues an ongoing trend of political extremists seeking to silence their political rivals through violence, rather than the ballot box. At this moment, little is known about the 20-year-old perpetrator, beyond his name, hometown, and a voting form listing his registration as Republican. His motive, or how he evaded the security cordon, are unknown. 

It is worth noting that this was not the first move toward political violence to strike this U.S. election cycle. For instance, in May, law enforcement apprehended a white supremacist who was traveling to Atlanta to commit a mass shooting, hoping to start a race war before the election. That would-be terrorist would have joined a long line of violent far-right extremists to target minority communities in the United States over the past several years. The political temperature is steadily rising, and as Graham Allison and Michael J. Morell argued in Foreign Affairs in June, “The Terrorism Warning Lights Are Blinking Red Again.” This is unlikely to be the end of the violence between now and the November elections, with the Republican convention in Milwaukee this week the next major focus of concern. 

Recent polling conducted by the Public Religion Research Institute suggests that almost a quarter of Americans support the statement that “American patriots may have to resort to violence in order to save the country,” including 33 percent of Republicans and 13 percent of Democrats. 

How would you assess the response of U.S. political leaders to the Butler, Pa. shooting?

President Biden’s initial response, calling the attack “sick” and speaking with his stricken adversary to express support, were encouraging, as were statements by other prominent Democrats including former President Barack Obama and Vice President Kamala Harris, as well as more prominent Republicans such as former President George W. Bush and Senate Minority Leader Mitch McConnell. The response of some on the right, finger-pointing and blaming Democrats for their heated rhetoric, is less productive. Possible vice presidential candidate JD Vance, for instance, asserted that Biden campaign “rhetoric led directly to President Trump's attempted assassination,” seemingly a response to recent Biden comments that "It’s time to put Trump in a bullseye."

Political violence, however, has already been normalized in the United States. The reaction to this incident, for example, contrasts greatly with the reaction of many right-wing political figures to the terrorist attack on the U.S. Capitol on January 6, which included calls to assassinate a sitting vice president, after which perpetrators have been hailed as “political prisoners,” “martyrs,” “heroes,” and “warriors.” The assassination attempt against Speaker of the House Nancy Pelosi in October 2022 was similarly met with conspiracy theories, featuring a dose of homophobic mockery. America urgently needs a bipartisan condemnation of rising political violence, from all actors and against all targets.

Can you compare U.S. environment with political violence seen in other democracies?

Allies and adversaries responded swiftly to the shooting with expressions of concern and will be closely watching the U.S. response in the days to come. 

Allied countries, who have regarded the escalating division and political violence in the United States with horror, have reacted with sweeping condemnations of the continued dismantling of norms against political violence in democracies. Although several of them, including the United Kingdom and Japan, have already suffered high-profile assassinations in the past several years, the attempt on the former and possible future leader of the free world may offer permission for seditious elements in other countries to similarly make attempts on their political leaders.

Moreover, the assassination attempt struck just days after the Department of Justice announced it had disrupted a Russian effort to use generative AI to spread disinformation in the United States ahead of the election. Needless to say, this dark day in American history will provide even more ammunition to the Russian disinformation machinery, as well as adversaries in China and Iran, who would welcome the further erosion of American democracy and its influence in the world.

This work represents the views and opinions solely of the author. The Council on Foreign Relations is an independent, nonpartisan membership organization, think tank, and publisher, and takes no institutional positions on matters of policy.

This publication is part of the Diamonstein-Spielvogel Project on the Future of Democracy.