There surely will be something for everyone at this year`s Grammy awards show.
That hasn`t always been the case, with some recent ceremonies being dominated by just one or two hot acts. In 1984, of course, we had Michael Jackson and his ”Thriller” attack. In `83, the L.A. rock group Toto grabbed most of the prizes. And in `81, in what some critics have called a low point for the Grammys, all the plum awards went to balladeer Christopher Cross.
Last year`s show was a much more interesting affair, with winners as diverse as Tina Turner, Bruce Springsteen, Prince, Cyndi Lauper and Lionel Richie.
But, with the exception of Springsteen, all of the top awards went to acts with either a pop or R & B following.
All that changed this year, with a major share of the nominations going to such rock and pop/rock powers as Springsteen, Dire Straits, Phil Collins, ex-Eagles Don Henley and Glenn Frey, Huey Lewis and the News, John Cougar Mellencamp and Foreigner.
At the same time, there continues to be a strong pop/R & B presence, with such favorites as Tina Turner, Stevie Wonder, Aretha Franklin and Whitney Houston ready to claim their share of the awards.
And did we say something for everyone? This year, there truly is, because the Grammy folks have added two new categories just for polka players. (Among the nominees are two Chicago polka bands: Eddie Blazonczyk`s Versatones and Lenny Gomulka and the Chicago Push.)
Of course, the greatest hype surrounds who will win the major popular music prizes. This year, that is more difficult to predict than usual because of two strange circumstances that will tend to ”skew” the results:
1. How will voters treat the many nominations for the ”We Are the World” benefit single and album? Will they shy away, thinking it a bit tacky to reward what was intended to be a charitable endeavor, or will they vote for it en masse, hoping a few Grammys will keep the feed-the-world movement alive? 2. How will the results be influenced by the controversial exclusion of Whitney Houston from the Best New Artist category? (Even though Houston is in her first year as a solo act, she was declared ineligible because she had previously contributed vocals to other artists` albums.) If she had been nominated, voters could have kept Houston`s almost-certain victory in mind when casting their ballots in categories where she is in competition with such industry favorites as Aretha Franklin and Tina Turner. But now, Houston`s exclusion from Best New Artist may cause a backlash of support for her–and hurt Turner and Franklin.
So who will sweep this year`s Grammys? Probably no one, because the competition is so strong in so many of the categories. Look for two acts
–namely Phil Collins and USA for Africa–to win two or three awards.
Here is a look at races in the major pop, rock, R & B and country categories, many of which will be featured during Tuesday night`s televised show. (Because there isn`t enough time in the TV special to give out all of the 71 awards to be presented this year, some winners will be announced in another ceremony several hours before the big Grammy show.)
Album of the year: This category must have been a real dilemma for rock- oriented voters, who were forced to choose between two of the year`s most popular and critically acclaimed LPs: Dire Straits` ”Brothers in Arms” and Phil Collins` ”No Jacket Required.” Though ”Jacket” should win–because it has greater support from pop and R & B factions–it could be upset if it loses too many votes to ”Brothers” and the third rock nominee in this field, Sting`s ”The Dream of the Blue Turtles.”
The possible darkhorse winner is ”Whitney Houston,” mostly because it has a very strong pop/R & B following but also because of Houston`s controversial exclusion from the best new artist competition.
Forget USA for Africa`s ”We Are the World” LP in this category because too many of the ”donated” songs were simply throw-away tracks.
Record of the year (goes to artist and producer) and song of the year
(goes to songwriters): Grammy history favors choosing one nominee for both plum awards, so let`s first consider the three singles that were nominated in both categories this year: USA for Africa`s ”We Are the World,” Dire Straits` ”Money for Nothing” and Don Henley`s ”The Boys of Summer.”
With its superstar vocals, superstar producer (Quincy Jones) and superstar songwriters (Michael Jackson and Lionel Richie), ”We Are the World” would appear to be an easy choice to sweep both awards. The other two songs each have a strike against them: Many people objected to what were believed to be anti-gay lyrics in ”Money for Nothing”; and not enough voters are familiar with the rock-oriented ”Boys of Summer,” which was a real sleeper of a nominee.
In the record of the year category, also Eliminate Springsteen`s ”Born in the U.S.A.” because it did not have enough support to be nominated in any of the rock subcategories. That leaves ”The Power of Love” by Huey Lewis and the News as the only real competition, although it isn`t quite ”serious”
enough to fit the mold of previous winners. So let`s go with ”World” for record of the year.
But for song of the year, ”World” will face a major challenge from the two other nominees: Foreigner`s ”I Want to Know What Love Is,” which featured gospel-tinged vocals by Jennifer Holliday and thus has more support from R & B-oriented voters than the other rock entries in the field, and Paul Young`s ”Everytime You Go Away,” the entry closest to the ”standard” sound of last year`s winner (Tina Turner`s ”What`s Love Got to Do With It”). Another plus for ”Everytime”: It was written by the very popular Daryl Hall (of Hall and Oates fame), and many NARAS voters may prefer him as the songwriting winner over the ”World” team of Jackson and Richie, who each have won their share of Grammys in the past. So let`s take a real gamble with this one, and pick Daryl Hall and ”Everytime You Go Away.”
Best new artist: This is the award that most folks considered a shoo-in for Whitney Houston–until, of course, she was declared ineligible. Now the surefire winner is the British group Sade, which has received nearly as much publicity for its chart power (two hit albums in less than a year) as for the exotic good looks of its lead singer (the Nigeria-born Helen Sade Adu).
Best pop vocal performance, female: One of the oddities of the Grammy voting system is that in the vocal performance categories, an artist may be nominated for either a single song or an entire album. Thus, we have Linda Ronstadt`s ”Lush Life” album competing against four powerhouse singles:
Madonna`s ”Crazy for You,” Pat Benatar`s ”We Belong,” Tina Turner`s ”We Don`t Need Another Hero” and Whitney Houston`s ”Saving All My Love for You.” But even with an entire album behind her, Ronstadt doesn`t have a chance, and neither do Benatar nor Madonna. And though Turner is still very popular with Grammy voters, they know she is a likely winner in at least one other category (female rock vocals). So look for the new kid, Whitney Houston, to walk away with the prize here.
Best pop vocal performance, male: Last year, Phil Collins won this category on the strength of just one song (”Against All Odds”); this year, he is nominated for an entire album (”No Jacket Required”). So Collins looks like an easy winner, even after he loses rock-faction votes to Sting (”The Dream of the Blue Turtles”) and Glenn Frey (”The Heat Is On”). Eliminate Stevie Wonder (”Part-Time Lover”) because he has won so many Grammys in the past and Paul Young (”Everytime You Go Away”) because he just isn`t well-known enough.
Best pop vocal performance by a duo or group: How can you possibly pick against a song that features 45 of the best voices in American pop music? If an anti-”We Are the World” movement does develop, this Grammy could go to Foreigner`s ”I Want to Know What Love Is.”
Best rock vocal performance, female: At one time, Pat Benatar
(”Invincible”) was almost an automatic winner in this category. But now she has to contend with comeback queen Tina Turner (”One of the Living”), who won this title last year with ”Better Be Good to Me.” This year, look for the very popular Turner to win again.
Best rock vocal performance, male: Last year`s winner, Bruce Springsteen, wasn`t even nominated in this category this year, even though his signature song, ”Born in the U.S.A.,” is up for a Record of the Year Grammy. That leaves the field open for the Springsteen-styled John Cougar Mellencamp, whose ”Scarecrow” LP should prevail. But a possible darkhorse is ”Reckless”
by Canadian Bryan Adams.
Best rock performance by a duo or group with vocal: This one has to go to Dire Straits` hugely popular ”Money for Nothing,” and for a simple reason:
The Straits and their leader, guitar virtuoso Mark Knopfler, have the most nominations in the pop and rock fields but don`t have a good shot at winning any of the other awards.
Best R & B vocal performance, female: This should be another easy one, with the legendary Aretha Franklin an odds-on favorite to win with ”Freeway of Love.” But you can`t quite count out Whitney Houston`s ”You Give Good Love,” especially in light of that Best New Artist controversy.
Best R & B vocal performance, male–Grammy voters who felt guilty about passing over Stevie Wonder in the major pop categories will probably honor him here for his ”In Square Circle” album.
Best R & B performance by a duo or group with vocal and best R & B song
–The probable winner in both categories is the Commodores` ”Nightshift,”
which, not so incidentally, was the only pop, rock or R & B song to be nominated for a vocal arrangement award.
Country: Even though there has been a strong ”back to basics” movement within the country music industry, the Grammy voters still tend to favor
”crossover” performers with a very pop-influenced sound. So for female vocal performance, look for Dolly Parton`s ”Real Love” album to edge out Emmylou Harris` ”The Ballad of Sally Rose” LP. In male vocal performance, look for Ronnie Milsap to win with his country/pop hit, ”Lost in the Fifties Tonight” (though Willie Nelson is always a threat, this year with ”Forgiving You Was Easy”). In duo or group performance, the winners should be the ”Why Not Me” album by the Judds, an appealing mother-and-daughter team that has managed to win a strong pop following for their traditional country sounds. For best country song, let`s return to ”Lost in the Fifties Tonight,” which was written by Mike Reid, Troy Seals and Fred Parris.
And, finally, here`s a category for the many fans of the often-nominated Huey Lewis, who will probably lose every award but this one. Lewis will get his Grammy for his contributions to the soundtrack of the movie ”Back to the Future,” which included the hugely popular ”The Power of Love.
