The clock is ticking.
With just one year to go before the Feb. 24, 1987, Democratic mayoral primary, Mayor Harold Washington is expected to face a stiff fight for renomination.
That is, unless he ducks the fight and bypasses the primary. If his prospects of winning the Democratic nomination don`t look good, Washington is holding open the possibility of running as an independent in the April, 1987, general election. That tactic would enable him to capitalize on his predominantly black political base and split dual opposition, as he did three years ago in winning his party`s nomination with little more than a third of the vote.
Former Mayor Jane Byrne, who was edged out by Washington in 1983, is still considered the principal challenger to Washington`s renomination. By announcing her candidacy last summer, Byrne hoped to pre-empt the field and discourage other mayoral hopefuls from making the 1987 election a three-way contest. Until recently, Byrne has been successful in doing just that.
But the field may soon become more crowded, partly because of the current investigation into allegations of corruption in City Hall, which has jolted the Washington administration and has prompted other contenders to consider taking on both Washington and Byrne.
Although Washington has retained his popularity among his black political base, he is now considered vulnerable among white independents and Hispanics, the groups that provided his winning margin over Republican Bernard Epton in the 1983 general election.
For the first time in nearly a half century, there may also be a serious contest for the Republican mayoral nomination.
Former U.S. Atty. Dan Webb has received permission from his Loop law firm to explore a mayoral bid. Former Gov. Richard Ogilvie, recently named McCormick Place trustee, has indicated that he is interested in running for mayor. And Cook County Republican Chairman Donald Totten has suggested that a converted Democrat might well be his party`s best hope of capturing City Hall after 56 years of Democratic rule.
In an effort to block Washington`s renomination, the regular Democratic organization is expected to push a referendum in November`s general election that would ask voters to replace party primaries with a nonpartisan mayoral election. To win, a candidate would have to receive a majority of the votes. If a candidate failed to receive more than half the vote, there would be a runoff election.
Washington has vowed to fight such a rules change in the courts as a violation of the federal Voting Rights Act. But such a system is currently used in city council elections, and Washington favored the idea before he was mayor, and he has said he might support such a change for the 1991 city election.
”Unless the rules are changed, it will come down to a choice between Byrne and Washington,” said a local political strategist, who asked not to be identified. ”Under those circumstances, Byrne could win.”
Cook County State`s Atty. Richard M. Daley, who finished a close third in the 1983 primary behind Washington and Byrne, has been reassessing his prospects in another three-way race in recent weeks.
Daley`s associates predicted last week that he will make his move by late this summer for the job that was held by his late father for 21 years. Daley`s allies think that with the strength of his name, he would be the chief beneficiary of a rules change.
”I think he`s going to do it,” said a prominent Southwest Side Democrat with close ties to the Daley wing of the Democratic organization.
During the recent congressional recess, U.S. Rep. Dan Rostenkowski (D., Ill.), chairman of the House Ways and Means Committee, confided to several friends that he is still thinking about a possible mayoral candidacy next winter.
Rostenkowski, Democratic committeeman of the Northwest Side 32d Ward, is also considered a possible successor to House Speaker Thomas P. O`Neill (D., Mass.), who is retiring in January. ”Rostenkowksi won`t run for mayor,” said a friend, ”because he wants a draft, and you`ve got to go in and fight for the office.”
Ald. Edward Vrdolyak (10th), chairman of the Cook County Democratic Party, has made no secret of his mayoral ambitions. But, according to close associates, Vrdolyak no longer disputes public opinion polls that have suggested that his chances would be, at best, a long shot. Although Vrdolyak has not ruled out a mayoral campaign, he is more interested in retaining the county party chairmanship in April and building support for an alternative to Washington.
Ald. Edward Burke (14th), chairman of the city council`s Finance Committee, has tested his strength as a potential mayoral candidate in private polls, but he has indicated that Rostenkowski, Byrne or Daley would probably have a better chance of ousting Washington.
Former Ald. William Singer (43d), who launched the lakefront independent political movement in the 1960s and opposed the late Mayor Richard J. Daley in the 1975 Democratic mayoral primary, has also been weighing a possible comeback. Singer rejected the suggestion last fall by some political friends that he seek statewide political office, saying that only another bid for the mayor`s job would draw him back into politics.
State Comptroller Roland Burris, who is expected to win re-election by a wide margin this fall, has been encouraged to run for mayor next winter.
But Burris, who is black, has said that he will not oppose the city`s first black mayor. As vice chairman of the Democratic National Committee and runner-up in the 1984 Democratic primary for the U.S. Senate, Burris has told friends that his political agenda is focused on statewide or national office. House Speaker Michael Madigan (D., Chicago) and Cook County Assessor Thomas Hynes, both of whom have been promoted as possible mayoral candidates, have indicated that they are not in the running, at least next year.
Former Cook County Assessor Thomas Tully, who hasn`t held political office since 1979 but retains a political war chest of more than $500,000, has been more politically active in recent months and is evaluating a possible run for mayor. Tully has close ties with U.S. Sen. Edward M. Kennedy (D., Mass.), Rostenkowski and other party leaders, and he has been mentioned as a potential mayoral contender for a decade.
Two Democrats who have acknowledged overtures from the GOP to make a party switch and run for mayor are Chicago Park Supt. Edmund Kelly, Democratic committeeman of the 47th Ward, and Ald. Roman Pucinski (41st), who made a strong but losing bid for mayor in the 1977 special mayoral election.
Because of their roles in the Democratic Party, neither Kelly nor Pucinski is likely to consider a party switch until after the November general elections. Pucinski`s daughter, Aurelia, is on the statewide Democratic ticket as the party`s candidate for secretary of state.
If Gov. James Thompson wins re-election this fall, he is expected to actively work for Webb`s election as the first GOP Chicago mayor in more than a half century. The two most recent Republican mayoral nominees, former Epton and investment banker Wallace Johnson, have announced their candidacies, which few political observers take seriously.
