Philippine opposition leader Corazon Aquino has dramatically demonstrated her extraordinary political power at the ballot box and in the streets, but her ability to govern the troubled nation remains untested.
U.S. officials and analysts, skeptical of the abilities of this
”housewife” just months ago, now believe that she alone has enough popular support and moral standing to restore order to her country and begin instituting the far-reaching reforms needed to erase the effects of two decades of rule by President Ferdinand Marcos.
Administration officials are confident the U.S. can work with Aquino if she emerges from the current turmoil as the recognized leader of the Philippines. Others point out that speculation on her abilities is irrelevant, because no one else is available to do the job.
”She has the people`s support, and I don`t think you can ask for more from a political leader,” said Richard Kessler, a past Marcos critic at the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace.
Martin Lasater of the Heritage Foundation, which has supported Marcos in the past, said Aquino`s ability to rally support has helped allay doubts about her ability to govern.
”She has demonstrated she is capable of leading a well-organized and formidable opposition, basically from scratch,” said Lasater, who was among the international observers at last month`s election in the Philippines.
But few people here have a clear idea of how she would run the country.
Aquino has said that she would call a convention to rewrite the national constitution that Marcos has shaped to his political needs, and probably would go ahead with May elections for mayors and governors, who now are generally Marcos allies.
She has told U.S. officials that she would continue to honor the existing five-year agreement on the two large American military bases, Clark Air Base and Subic Bay Naval Base, through 1991, but hasn`t publicly committed herself beyond that date.
Aside from those issues, analysts say, she will have to rejuvenate a corrupt and indifferent bureaucracy, restore confidence in a legal system manipulated by Marcos, turn around a deeply troubled economy, reform the military and turn back a growing communist insurgency.
”It`s not going to be an easy time,” said Kessler, who last met with Aquino in October.
On her side, Aquino has the visible suppport of millions of Filipinos, the endorsement of the Catholic Church leadership in the Philippines and the backing–for now, at least–of her political rivals within the opposition movement, such as her vice presidential running mate, Salvador Laurel.
Experts here said Aquino has assembled around herself an able group of advisers, although by all signs she is the one calling the shots. The advisers include those formerly close to her assassinated husband, Benigno; portions of the business community who have turned against Marcos; and people from her Cojuangco family, one of the wealthiest landowners in the nation.
”She is not a radical,” one American diplomat said.
Thoughout the election campaign, Marcos belittled Aquino`s qualifications to be president of the Philippines. And Aquino pledged that, if elected, she would put Marcos on trial for the murder of her husband.
Before Benigno Aquino was shot in August, 1983, Cory Aquino remained in his political shadow. She frequently joined him in political meetings but generally listened without comment. During the eight years her husband was imprisoned by Marcos, she was his main contact with the outside world and his political voice.
A political figure in her own right now, Aquino still faces political rivals, according to the American experts.
Others likely to seek a piece of the post-Marcos political power include her running mate, former senator Laurel; Marcos` running mate, the
accomplished lawyer and diplomat Arturo Tolentino; and the two officers leading the military revolt againt Marcos, Lt. Gen. Fidel Ramos and former Defense Minister Juan Ponce Enrile.
But experts here believe that, for a time, they will have to take a back seat to Aquino.
”She clearly is the symbol of the opposition movement, and therefore it makes sense for her to be the person chosen head of state,” said Lasater.
