Most of the candidates challenging incumbents this year are underdogs. So what’s motivating these long-shot candidates to run against the odds?

Long-shot candidates in Hawaii include newcomers and repeat contenders from different political parties. While each party has its share of long-shot candidates, this column focuses on Republicans, who face particularly steep odds in a predominantly Democratic state.

In the last four elections, statewide Republican candidates won an average of 30% of the vote. Despite these odds, Republican candidates continue to run, and I contacted several of them to find out why.

Their responses broke down into three main categories of motivations among these Republican challengers: frustration with a one-party system, religion and national rhetoric. Let’s start with the first.

The candidates who seem primarily concerned with our one-party system believe that a lack of political competition leaves many voices unheard. A few cite their interactions with the Legislature as the impetus for their candidacy.

For example, State House District 49 candidate Josiah Ubando decided to run for office after providing testimony on Senate Bill 2617, a bill introduced by Republican Sen. Brenton Awa meant to identify mechanisms for limiting foreign ownership of property in Hawaii. His experience taught him that “the outcome of a bill is decided before they even take public testimony.”

“The idea popped in my head: If the system is built for us to lose on the outside, maybe if we get in, we can win,” Ubando said.

Unlike many other Republican challengers, Ubando describes himself as “slightly leaning right,” but he believes that people, not parties, should dictate policy.

On his chances of defeating incumbent Democratic Rep. Scot Matayoshi, Ubando is realistic yet hopeful, saying, “Statistically speaking, it is a long shot. But so was the Patriots coming back against the Falcons.”

In 2022, Matayoshi defeated his Republican opponent by a 45-point margin.

In emails, other Republican candidates, such as Teri Savaiinaea (State Senate District 22), Jillian Anderson (State House District 24) and Kurt Sullivan (State Senate District 3), echoed Ubando’s desire to “change the system.”

Another commonly cited reason Republican challengers entered their races is that they felt a moral responsibility to do so. In their responses to my inquiry, these candidates typically cited faith as a cornerstone of their campaign. While some said the power of grassroots campaigning could overcome their disadvantages, others said that divine intervention could carry them over the line.

Joelle Seashell, who is running in House District 21 against incumbent Democratic Rep. Jackson Sayama, explained: “My decision to run for office comes from the patriotic duty and responsibility I have to both the past and future — my ancestors and my children, if God is to bless me.”

She added, “Through God, all things are possible. That said, I don’t think very likely.”

Frankie McCurley, a Republican candidate in House District 40, used more forceful language when describing his motivations.

“I saw some bills try to move through this past session that were, without a better description, evil in nature,” McCurley said. “I am running because no one is calling out the actual cause of our current situation, which is the breakdown of family values and basic moral depravity.”

If McCurley emerges from the Republican primary on Aug. 10, he will face incumbent Democrat Rose Martinez who won her 2022 race by only 3 points, making this one of the most winnable districts for a challenger.

Garner Shimizu has a similar margin to overcome in House District 32. In 2022, he lost his race to Democratic Rep. Micah Aiu by 246 votes.

Shimizu also ran unsuccessfully in 2010 and 2012. But when the seat became vacant in 2022, he “got a call to consider and pray about running again.”

“My wife and I prayed and confirmed that this was a divine invitation to serve and run again,” Shimizu said. “I felt people needed an alternative, and I was someone who could give people another choice.”

Republicans who emphasized religion or a dislike of the status quo mostly avoided hardline Republican rhetoric in their responses. However, some candidates adopted a much more strident tone. These candidates argue that progressive policies are leading to societal and economic decline. They emphasize economics, crime, government spending and protecting individual liberties as critical concerns. Notably, they were also the most optimistic about their chances of winning.

Patrick Largey, who is running for the congressional seat currently held by Democratic Congressman Ed Case, said he is running because, “I felt that our country is headed in the wrong direction with our open borders, record inflation, high crime and homelessness.”

I believe the candidates quoted here provide valuable insights that help us understand the group of individuals willing to run for office against all odds.

Largey fits well within the national Republican agenda, describing himself as a “conservative at-heart” who is “pro-Life, pro-2nd Amendment, strong on the US military, Police, and Fire Departments.”

In 2022, Case defeated his Republican opponent with a 46-point margin, but Largey believes this year will be different.

Kelly Armstrong is facing a similar margin in her race against incumbent Democrat Elle Cochran in House District 14. In an email, Armstrong said, “I am extremely confident that the people will vote with me come November.”

While she is focused on local issues like the cost of living, education and the Maui fire response, Armstrong also expressed concern about a national decline.

“Many say that the USA is the greatest country on earth. It once was, and as long as we follow the foundation of what made us the greatest country (which is the Constitution), we can quickly become the greatest again,” she said.

Patricia Beekman, who is running in a rematch against incumbent Democrat Brandon Elefante in Senate District 16, shares her fellow candidates’ motivations, citing support for the Constitution and disdain for progressivism among her top drivers.

“I’m a conservative. I believe people are best served when government power is limited to what is expressed in the Declaration of Independence and the U.S. Constitution, leaving people freest to run their own lives as they see fit, as long as it doesn’t hurt others,” Beekman said. “I believe in giving children a quality education and not brainwashing them in school with the latest government-approved, progressive ideas, unbeknownst to their parents.”

Of course, the motivations and perspectives discussed here do not represent all Republican challengers. However, after communicating with more than a third of the Republican hopefuls running against Democratic incumbents in this election, I believe the candidates quoted here provide valuable insights that help us understand the group of individuals willing to run for office against all odds. Whether motivated by frustration, faith or ideology, these candidates play an important role in the democratic process by offering voters an alternative to the dominant party.

Democratic challengers to incumbents and third-party candidates are also crucial participants in the democratic process. Like their Republican counterparts, they offer voters a choice, and in future articles, I aim to explore some of their motivations as well.

By delving into these stories, we can gain a deeper understanding of the diverse motivations driving the individuals who step into Hawaii’s political arena. And, hopefully, encourage more individuals to participate in the political process.