CLEVELAND, Ohio – Talking to myself about the Guardians at the All-Star break:
QUESTION: Why don’t you tell the truth about the baseball team?
ANSWER: What truth is that?
Q: Haven’t you been paying attention? They are falling apart. Collapsing! The second half of the season is going to be awful – and that’s the truth.
A: That sounds like some of the overheated emails I’ve received lately. Cleveland has a 58-37 record, best in the American League.
Q: It won’t be for long. They dragged themselves into the All-Star break. They’ve won only 7 of their last 18 games.
Stories by Terry Pluto
A: Let’s roll back the season 18 games. They had a 51-26 record. At that pace, they were going to win 106 games. Do you really believe this team would win 106 games? Or even 100? Do I hear 95, especially when the season started? They were 76-86 last season. I was on the low end of predictions with 72-90, but most places had them around .500 … maybe 83-79. They have been wildly overachieving.
Q: I don’t like how they are playing.
A: There are some significant concerns. But first, I checked the standings where it gives you how a team performed in the last 10 games heading into the All-Star break. Most good teams looked like they were ready for a break: Baltimore (3-7), Dodgers (3-7), Cleveland (4-6), Yankees (4-6), Phillies (5-5), Seattle (5-5), Braves (6-4) and Minnesota (6-4). Know who has the best record? It’s Detroit at 8-2.
Q: Your point?
A: I broke in as a baseball writer covering the 1979 Baltimore Orioles for the Baltimore Evening Sun. They had a 102-57 record that season. They had a five-game losing streak in July. I asked manager Earl Weaver about being worried, etc. Weaver stared at me and said, “This ain’t football, we do this every day! Got that, every day!!!” I left out his colorful adjectives. His point was it’s a long season. You have problems. You can even have a rough month and still make the playoffs. Cleveland’s longest losing streak this season is three in a row.
Q: What about momentum?
A: Another Weaverism: “Tell me about my starting pitcher for tomorrow? How’s he going to pitch? Then I’ll tell you about momentum.”
Q: That’s right, the starting pitching … Now we can talk.
A: And you’re right, now we can be worried. I have no idea how this team has the second-best record in the majors. The projected rotation was Shane Bieber, Triston McKenzie, Gavin Williams and Tanner Bibee and Logan Allen.
Tanner Bibee still with the team is the only Cleveland starter not to miss a turn in the rotation this season. Joshua Gunter, cleveland.com
Q: It’s hard to even remember that.
A: Allen and McKenzie are in the minors. Bieber is done for the season with elbow surgery. Williams had elbow problems and finally is back, having made only three starts. Their best starter this season is Ben Lively. The pitcher not to miss a start due to injury/illness is Tanner Bibee. After Bibee (19 starts), who has started the most games for Cleveland?
Q: Hey, I ask the questions.
A: Carlos Carrasco with 17, at least among the guys still in Cleveland.
Q: Can they bring back Allen and/or McKenzie from Class AAA Columbus?
A: That’s the plan. McKenzie has started twice for the Clippers, allowing seven earned runs in 9⅓ innings. He’s fanned 13, walked three and allowed two homers. Allen has made one start, giving up one run in five innings, striking out seven.
Q: Bring Allen back!
A: They want him to throw more strikes, cut down on his number of pitches. But I’m with you in terms of being more upbeat about Allen than McKenzie right now.
Q: How bad is the starting pitching?
A: I’ll compare it to other American League teams. The Cleveland starters have a 4.52 ERA, which ranks 13th out of 15 teams. They have thrown 484 innings, the fewest in the American League. If those were the only stats I knew at the start of the season, I’d project them to be fighting for last place in the division.
Q: Gotta love the bullpen!
A: They should have sent most of the Cleveland relievers to the All-Star Game. The bullpen has a 2.62 ERA, by far the best in the American League. The Yankees are next at 3.46. My concern is that this bullpen ranks No. 4 in innings pitched. Hard to believe they can keep pitching at such an elite level.
Andres Gimenez leads a defense that is the second best in baseball, according to Fangraphs. John Kuntz, cleveland.com
Q: How good are the Guardians defensively?
A: This has been another key to their season. Jay Jaffe of the analytics site FanGraphs wrote: “By my evaluation of a handful of the major defensive metrics — Defensive Runs Saved, Ultimate Zone Rating, Statcast’s Fielding Run Value (FRV), and our catcher framing metrics — the Guardians rate as the majors’ second-best defensive team thus far this season.”
Q: What about Trevor Bauer?
A: I guess you didn’t like the answer. The defense is a big part of their success. Rarely do they make stupid plays, and they usually are very sharp. They play like a smart team in the field.
Q: That’s good, what about Bauer?
A. Now in the Mexican League, Bauer will not be signed by Cleveland. During his last tour of duty, he disrespected manager Terry Francona and various coaches. He urged teammates not to sign long-term contracts with the team. His off-field problems came out after he was traded. So far, no MLB team has signed him.
Q: Can he still pitch?
A: He’s done well in Mexico (10-0, 1.78 ERA). I’m just saying, he’s not coming to Cleveland. The Guardians major in team culture and deplore drama. I keep getting emails from readers who want to argue with me about Bauer. No matter. He’s not in their plans, period.
Q: So then what?
A: I’d love to see them trade for Erick Fedde, the White Sox veteran starting pitcher. He’s 7-3 with a 2.99 ERA. I’ve mentioned him before in connection with Cleveland. He is under contract for $7.5 million annually through 2025. The White Sox are terrible. Other teams are bidding on him.
Q: What if they can’t add a starter?
A: As surprising as the bullpen has been, the same is true of the hitters. After ranking 12th in the American League in runs scored in 2023, they are fifth this season. They were last in homers a year ago with 129 total. They are seventh this season and already have 109. All of this happened without them making any big additions to the lineup.
Illustration by Ted Crow for Crowquill. Two Guardians have been named starters for the MLB All-Star Game in Arlington, Texas. They are Steven Kwan and Jose Ramirez.Ted Crow
Q: So what happened?
A. Steve Kwan, José Ramírez and Josh Naylor are All-Stars and having career years. Kwan leads all of baseball with a .352 average. Ramírez is second in RBI with 77, Naylor is third with 70 in the American League. David Fry came out of nowhere to be an All-Star. That said, Fry is batting only .209 (.560 OPS) in his last 30 games with zero homers. That’s a warning sign.
Q: Can they keep this up?
A: Can they win 100 games? That would require them to finish with a 42-25 record over the final 67 games. Not sure about that. But can they win 95 games (a 37-30 finish) and take the Central Division? Of course. But look out, Minnesota is only 4 1/2 games behind.
Q: What about the manager?
A: The fact that he hasn’t come up yet is a good sign. It means Stephen Vogt is doing a terrific job in his rookie season as a manger. The front office got this right, and they’ve done a lot of things right in 2024.
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