Iran facing crackdown as hardliner cosy with brutal IRGC tipped for presidency
EXCLUSIVE: Experts have warned that the Iranian regime is set to become even more fierce, cracking down on dissent following President Ebrahim Raisi's death.
Iran is now in a period of deep instability that could see it plunge even deeper into conservativism by a hardliner tipped to take over following the death of President Ebrahim Raisi, experts have warned.
Raisi's death was announced last week after his helicopter crashed into the side of a mountain following a visit to Azerbaijan, forcing his deputy Mohammad Mokhber to take over before the next election.
An election must be held within 50 days, and speculation is rife as to who will be in the running to continue the Iranian regime.
Experts have warned that the already strict government will only become even "more repressive", particularly under Mohammad Bagher Ghalibaf, the current speaker who is "widely expected" to run for president.
Dr Haian Dukhan, Lecturer in Politics & International Relations at Teesside University, explained that the new leader will want to make Iran appear strong, and will achieve this by being even stricter in cracking down on dissent.
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He told The Express: "The regime would not want to appear weak to its opponents and would not want to show that it is fracturing as a result of the death of the president.
"It is more likely that the regime will become more repressive in order to project an image of strength and unity. The government will likely intensify its surveillance, control of information, and suppression of protests to maintain order and demonstrate strength both to its citizens and to the international community."
Ghalibaf is currently the hardline speaker of parliament and is close to the immensely powerful Islamic Revolutionary Guard Corps (IRGC). He has already run for president three times, as well as serving as the police chief and mayor of Tehran.
Pat Thaker, Editorial Director at the Economist Intelligence Unit, told The Express that Ghalibaf "is widely expected to run for the presidency".
Thaker warned: "The conservatives dominate all the main levers of power and will engineer a victory for a like-minded successor. Presential elections will be tightly vetted to ensure a conservative victory... Public engagement with the process will be minimal, given the prevailing loss of faith in the political system."
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Ghalibaf's closeness with the IRGC would make him a formidable candidate, as Dr Dukhan said the "real contest" will be among those who can "secure the support" of the organisation.
The UK previously sanctioned the IRGC after they oversaw a crackdown on protests following the death of Mahsa Amini in 2023, opening fire on and killing unarmed protesters.
Dr Dukhan pointed to the Iranian regime's "robust mechanism for suppressing dissent", as it's "backed by the IRGC" - which he called a "faction within the regime".
It is not yet clear who will be running for president of Iran, but election day is set for June 28. Candidates will be allowed to register between May 30 and June 3, with the campaign taking place from June 12 to 27.