Wagner is 'undertrained and overvalued' as Russian mercenary group facing hell in Africa
EXCLUSIVE: The Wagner group, which has allegedly been taking part in raids and drone strikes in Mali, may have more weaknesses than previously thought.
Russia’s Wagner Group, a notorious private military company linked to the Kremlin, is facing increasing scrutiny and operational difficulties as it expands its footprint in Africa, according to an expert.
"Wagner is undertrained and overvalued for its role," Irina Tsukerman, a human rights and national security lawyer, and the CEO of Scarab Rising, told Express.co.uk.
"Wagner is struggling with the various security threats and simply does not have sufficient numbers or skills to withstand the current security trajectory indefinitely."
Wagner’s activities in West Africa have been marked by controversy. Recent reports from Human Rights Watch and Amnesty International accuse Wagner of participating in raids and drone strikes that have resulted in civilian deaths.
In Mali, for example, Wagner operatives are reported to have been involved in operations that targeted gatherings and led to numerous fatalities. Amnesty International detailed incidents where drone strikes killed at least 13 civilians, including seven children, and highlighted the death of a pregnant woman who miscarried after a bombing.
Burkina Faso civilians hold pro-Wagner rally near Niger border
Wagner’s shortcomings are complicating Russia’s geopolitical strategy, potentially allowing competing powers to expand their influence and devalue Russia's reach.
Tsukerman said: "Russia cannot directly compete with China on an economic level, but it can complement Beijing in areas where it holds unique expertise."
This suggests that while Wagner’s failures may undermine Russia’s immediate goals, they also present an opportunity for other international actors to influence the situation and challenge Russia’s influence.
This comes as Russia is seemingly trying to deepen ties with many West African countries in its ongoing conflict with Ukraine and its allied Western powers.
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"The dynamics of Russia's presence in African countries are shifting from its normal MO in pursuing exclusively tactical relationships," Tsukerman explained.
Russia’s strategy now includes long-term investments, such as Rosatom’s plan to build a nuclear power plant in Burkina Faso.
"The agreement to have Rosatom building a nuclear power plant in Burkina Faso elevates the country to a new level of strategic importance for Russia," she added, likening it to Russia’s significant investments in Turkey and Egypt.
