Ten Hag believes future bright for Man Utd after Liverpool draw
Manchester United did well to fight back and draw 2-2 with Liverpool yesterday and they might even have won were it not for Aaron Wan-Bissaka's late foul on Harvey Elliott inside the penalty box. But the brutal truth is that Erik ten Hag's team should have lost the match - and probably heavily.
Liverpool's xG of 3.57 is the most they have had in a Premier League game this season without winning. Their 28 shots is the most United have ever faced in a league match at Old Trafford since Opta statistics began in 2003-04.
In isolation, a 2-2 draw against title-challenging Liverpool when the Red Devils are likely to finish as low down as sixth is a credible result. In isolation, it is not one to worry about. The easy conclusion to draw is that United simply made Liverpool pay for wasting their chances.
They did - but the warning signs must not be ignored. "The future's very, very bright," said Ten Hag post-match. "Something is building here. It's another sign this team has a high potential." Yet the first-half performance in particular said otherwise.
The reality is that it was nothing United have not produced before. They went without a single shot on goal in the first 45 while Liverpool had 15. But it was not too dissimilar to a dreadful showing at Brentford last week, when they somehow drew 1-1 despite the Bees posting an xG of 2.60 to United's 0.50.
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The 2-2 draw with Liverpool was the first time since 2015 that United had not had at least one shot in the opening 45 minutes of a league game at Old Trafford. The optimists will of course point to the fact that regardless, United came away with a point. Just like they did against Brentford.
The realists, though, know that this is a long-term trend and one that is not at all sustainable. It should really cost Ten Hag his job this summer. INEOS and Sir Jim Ratcliffe keeping the Dutchman in charge would be a real gamble off of this evidence.
United are not good enough going forward and not going enough defensively. It's why their goal difference is -1 after 31 games. They have conceded 253 shots in 11 Premier League matches in 2024. League leaders Arsenal have conceded 87 in their 11 games since the turn of the year, and 259 across their entire 31 matches.
Without the excellent Andre Onana, who knows where United would be. Of those with more than five appearances, only Alisson (75.3 per cent) and Alphonse Areola (75.8 per cent) have higher save percentages. He saves 75 per cent of the shots on target against him. There is not much to suggest it will be any better next year.
United were expected to make progression after finishing third last season and reaching two cup finals. But they have regressed and the table proves it. At their current rate of points per game, they will finish on 60 points. That would be a decline of 15 from last season. Fourth-placed Tottenham and fifth-placed Aston Villa are projected to end on 73 and 71 respectively.
Of course injuries have hurt the Red Devils. But to the extent where they are extremely open in every match they play and concede more shots than the very worst teams in the league? No. With the players at his disposal, this team should be performing far better than it is. That is on the manager.
United will hope for a strong finish to the season but their second-half performance against Liverpool cannot even be used as an indicator that a positive conclusion to the campaign is coming. After all, their woeful display at Brentford followed their 121st-minute FA Cup win over the Reds last month - although it came the opposite side of an international break.
It is, though, not out of the question that Ten Hag's team find some consistency in the final seven league games and maybe even win the FA Cup. That could be enough to save him. But on the evidence of the last few weeks and months, they won't - and Ten Hag should not be the United manager at the start of next season.