Election 2024: Battleground Voters
WASHINGTON (Gray DC) - The Republican National Convention kicks off Monday as Joe Biden and Donald Trump race to pick up Wisconsin’s delegates.
Just a few blocks from the RNC, pollsters at Marquette Law School pored through decades of polling data to see how Wisconsin has flipped between red and blue.
The presidential race looks as tight as ever in the Badger State as November approaches. As the RNC put the finishing touches on their 2024 convention, the Marquette Law School looked backward at how the state election map changed between 2004 and 2020.
“Democrats were unusually competitive rural voters here, and Republicans were unusually strong with suburban voters at least in southeastern Wisconsin,” said Craig Gilbert, Lubar Fellow.
State-wide elections remained close year in and year out, but Republicans started to dominate rural areas. Democrats cut into GOP margins in the suburban counties of Waukesha, Ozaukee and Washington, and expanded their edge in Dane County.
Gilbert continued, “Despite dramatic changes within Wisconsin, the regional changes within Wisconsin, voting patterns and trends, these things have kind of been a partisan wash.”
Their latest poll has Joe Biden and Donald Trump tied 50-50 among registered voters with Biden leading 51-49 among registered voters. Marquette Law Poll Director Charles Franklin said Trump gained ground at the expense of RFK Jr.’s support.
“As Kennedy comes down at the margin it’s good for Trump because those Republicans that like and are drawn to Kennedy are likely to come back to him,” he said.
Lubar Center Research Fellow John Johnson said it’s important to note the state is not a toss-up because of moderate voters.
“Rather it’s full of this remarkably even balance of strong partisans. Genuine liberals and conservatives. There’s hardly anywhere that seems to actually be in the middle,” said Johnson.
Marquette polls were conducted before the presidential debate and the attempted assassination of Donald Trump.
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