2024 Emmys Predictions: Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
Marcus Jones
We will update this article throughout the season, along with all our predictions, so make sure to keep checking IndieWire for the latest news from the 2024 Emmys race. The nomination round of voting takes place from June 13 to June 24, with the official Emmy nominations announced Wednesday, July 17. Afterwards, final voting commences on August 15 and ends the night of August 26. The 76th Annual Primetime Emmy Awards are set to take place on Sunday, September 15, and air live on ABC at 8:00 p.m. ET/ 5:00 p.m. PT.
Click on for more of our previous thoughts on what to expect at the 76th Primetime Emmy Awards.
The State of the Race
It has been a minute since someone playing a clear cut antagonist has won the Emmy for Outstanding Supporting Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie. The last time was probably Patricia Arquette winning in 2019 for her portrayal of Dee Dee Blanchard in “The Act” on Hulu. There are parallels to be drawn between that role and Jessica Gunning’s turn in “Baby Reindeer,” as they both set out to be nuanced portrayals of a real life mentally ill person.
However, the Netflix hit has gone on a bit of a rollercoaster ride after premiering in April, with the alleged person Gunning’s Martha is based on making her own claims against the veracity of the series. It does ultimately feel like the show was so big, and Gunning’s performance was so singular, that the side controversy will not affect her awards chances, but it does function as a distraction.
A unique aspect of the Emmys this year is that two Indigenous actresses are nominated in the same category for the first time. With “True Detective: Night Country” being the nominations leader for limited series, one would think breakout Kali Reis has the edge, but “Under the Bridge” star Lily Gladstone is having such a banner year with her “Killers of the Flower Moon” Oscar nomination, and a well-received starring turn in the independent film “Fancy Dance,” that an Emmy for her performance in the Hulu sleeper hit is very much a possibility.
The trio of Nava Mau (“Baby Reindeer”), Dakota Fanning (“Ripley”), and Aja Naomi King (“Lessons in Chemistry”) all receive a boost from the shows they star in being nominated for Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series, but their nods feel like acknowledgement that they are moving in the right direction. It is just ultimately hard to stand out when the frontrunner flag is planted as deeply as it is for Gunning.
There is a case to be made though that TV Academy members flock toward voting for Diane Lane to win the Emmy for “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” as the sole representative in the category for an FX series that thrives off of its supporting actress performances.
Nominees are listed in order of their likelihood to win.
Power Rankings:
- Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
- Kali Reis, “True Detective: Night Country” (HBO)
- Lily Gladstone, “Under the Bridge” (Hulu)
- Nava Mau, “Baby Reindeer” (Netflix)
- Dakota Fanning, “Ripley” (Netflix)
- Aja Naomi King, “Lessons in Chemistry” (Apple TV+)
- Diane Lane, “Feud: Capote vs. the Swans” (FX)
Will Win: Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer”
Could Win: Kali Reis, “True Detective: Night Country”
Should Win: Jessica Gunning, “Baby Reindeer”
More Limited Series and TV Movie Category Predictions:
Outstanding Limited or Anthology Series
Outstanding TV Movie
Outstanding Lead Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Lead Actress in a Limited Series or a Movie
Outstanding Supporting Actor in a Limited Series or a Movie
View IndieWire’s full set of predictions for the 76th Emmy Awards.
Last Year’s Winner: Niecy Nash-Betts, “Monster: The Jeffrey Dahmer Story”
Still Eligible: No.
Hot Streak: Of course, it is the performances that win this Emmy, not the network. That said, Netflix has a solid chance of winning the category a second year in a row given the huge response “Baby Reindeer” has gotten after quietly premiering on the platform in April.
Notable Ineligible Series: Tiffany Boone, “The Big Cigar” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Cleopatra Coleman and Jacki Weaver, “Clipped” (the season will not air in time to be eligible); Ruth Negga and Lily Rabe, “Presumed Innocent” (the season will not air in time to be eligible)
