Is omicron done yet? COVID-19 cases drop fast but hospitalizations still high
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While the omicron curve that shot up quickly just one month ago is starting a downward fall, the pressure has yet to ease significantly on the state’s hospitals.
Hospital leaders, though, remain hopeful relief will soon follow.
In the past few days, the seven-day daily case count average has plummeted from a high of 14,495 on Friday to 12,201 as of Tuesday, according to the state’s vaccine dashboard.
Wednesday the state reported 5,536 new COVID-19 cases, a number once considered on the high side before omicron changed those standards. Just last Thursday, the state saw a high of nearly 17,500 cases confirmed in a single day.
COVID:Indiana passes 20,000 deaths as omicron surge continues
For the state’s largest counties, the freefall started longer ago.
Calling the current scenario “a little bit of a muddy picture,” IU Northwest economist Micah Pollak predicted that the rest of the state will soon follow the declining examples of Marion and Lake Counties. Those are the two most populous counties in the state.
In Marion County, the seven-day daily case average has dropped from 2,389 on Jan. 11 to nearly half that by Tuesday, 1,338. In Lake, that number declined from a high of 802 on Jan. 4 to 318 Tuesday, less than half that.
“I think we’re going to see cases dropping off rapidly soon in the next few weeks,” said Pollak, an associate economics professor. “I think by early February we will be back down to relatively low levels.”
Inside hospitals
The shift can’t come soon enough for those who work in the state’s hospitals. While hospitalizations across the state have declined somewhat, dropping from a high of 3,519 to 3,206 as of Tuesday, they’re still higher than at any point during the delta surge.
Indiana University Health, the state’s largest health system, has seen the number of patients hospitalized with COVID-19 stay around 600 in recent weeks, said Dr. Mark Luetkemeyer, vice president and chief medical officer at IU Health's Adult Academic Health Center. Earlier this week, IU Health saw the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients go down to 572 only to jump up to 595 the next day.
Similarly, statewide the number of hospitalized COVID-19 patients has been bouncing around in recent days, dipping one day only to see an increase the next.
IU Health hospitals, however, have yet to see a difference in both the number of those hospitalized with COVID-19 and those hospitalized for other conditions.
“We look no different from where we were at last week,” Luetkemeyer said. “We’re in a steady state right now.”
IU Health’s experience may differ from that of other hospitals, he said, because many of the patients it treats have been referred from other hospitals.
Still, it can take a week or two after cases start to drop for that to have an impact in hospitalizations, experts say, noting it’s the opposite of what happens when cases increase. Typically it takes a few days to a week before the sickest COVID-19 patients require hospitalization. ICU admissions and then deaths follow a few weeks out of the initial hospitalization. Conversely, when cases drop, hospitalizations and deaths typically decline a few weeks later.
Franciscan Health Indianapolis has also not seen a significant decline in its numbers, hovering around 80 to 100 COVID-19 patients hospitalized a day, while its Mooresville counterpart has about 20 patients hospitalized, said Dr. Christopher Doehring, vice president of medical affairs for Franciscan Health.
“The hospital numbers are still pretty flat and at very high levels,” Doehring said.
While case numbers are not rising, they're also not falling consistently, a pattern that Doehring characterized as “bouncing around.”
While health officials in other parts of the country have reported seeing shorter hospital stays and less severe illness with omicron, that has not necessarily been the case here, both Doehring and Luetkemeyer agreed.
Young unvaccinated patients as young as 19 have died, dispelling the notion that omicron is nothing more than a mild cold, Doehring said.
Cases falling, positivity rate stable
While the drop in cases is certainly promising, the direction of the positivity rate, another potential indicator that the peak has passed, is not as clear. In fact Wednesday the state reported a record high positivity rate of 30.5%.
That’s not significantly, however, than the positivity rate over the past few days and the positivity rate lags by week to allow for delays in reporting testing results.
“You want to be in a situation where both the positivity rate and cases are dropping,” Pollak said. “Statewide we’re not there. The next best situation is where one is holding steady and the other is dropping.”
Another potentially confusing statistic looks at how rampant COVID-19 is in the schools. Earlier this week, Indiana reported a record number of school cases.
Indiana:More than 100,000 COVID cases reported in Indiana schools this year
But those cases all occurred last week or before and do not reflect the up-to-the-minute omicron situation. A week makes a big difference with fast-moving omicron.
Certainly, hospital leaders hope that the cases continue to drop.
“It’s a promising sign that statewide you’re seeing lower numbers…. I think we probably are cresting or have crested,” Luetkemeyer said. “That is a first indicator that we may be turning the corner on this, but by no means are we out of the woods on this.”
Contact IndyStar reporter Shari Rudavsky at [email protected]. Follow her on Facebook and on Twitter: @srudavsky.