Municipal Market Analytics, Inc.

MMA's Chart of the Week: Markets have fully priced in a 25bp rate cut at the Sept. 18 meeting, with a roughly 30% chance of a 50bp cut. Swaps nearly fully priced in 50bps worth of cuts by the September meeting in early August amid a sell-off in equities. This Wednesday's CPI release could sway bets significantly one way or the other. #chartoftheweek #municipalbonds #fixedincome

MMA's Chart of the Week: MMA’s municipal price index reflected a gain of 0.78% in August, and a gain of 3.91% between June and August; the latter representing the strongest “summer” performance since 2004. September performance has been biased negatively in recent years, with an average loss of -1.40% since and including 2014. #municipalbonds #fixedincome #chartoftheweek

Great piece from Liz Farmer and her Pew colleagues breaking down state revenue growth during the pandemic! https://lnkd.in/et8j24tV

August issuance ramps up!

MMA's Chart of the Week: Ahead of tomorrow’s $2.6B GO offering, we review the yield of a 10-year CA GO as well as its spread to a AAA 10-year benchmark. The state’s spreads have widened 15-20bps since the start of 2024. In December of 2023, S&P downgraded California's GO bond outlook from positive to stable amid a budget crunch. Still, the state represents one of the municipal market's most liquid issuers which contributes to relatively tight spreads given CA's ratings. As of Friday's close, the evaluation of a 10-year CA GO was 2.81%. #chartoftheweek #municipalbonds #fixedincome

Chicago was originally scheduled to price general obligation bonds on Aug. 7, but the deal was shelved and placed on day-to-day status. Today, the city priced the $646M GO deal after July CPI data seemed to reinforce speculation of a September rate cut. Chicago GO spreads have narrowed over the last year and today's offering garnered solid demand:

MMA's Matt Fabian, Christina Weinberg, and Kevin McGuigan at last night's Municipal Bond Club of New York summer outing. A great event, as always. The Municipal Bond Club of New York

MMA's Chart of the Week: The 2-year UST yield is down nearly 70bps in the last week, in the wake of recessionary economic data releases and speculation that the Fed will step in with more significant rate cuts. The 2/10yr curve had been inverted since July 2022, but this morning the 2-year yield briefly dropped below the 10-year. The gap between 2- and 10-year municipal benchmark yields has also narrowed in recent weeks, and sat at -16bps as of last Friday. #municipalbonds #fixedincome #chartoftheweek