The 6 p.m. trade deadline is less than nine hours away and it’s still a mystery as to what the Red Sox will do. They might do nothing. They might be buyers. They might be sellers. They might both buy and sell like they did last year.
Would buying be a good idea based on the Red Sox’s playoff odds and where they are in the Wild Card and AL East standings?
Boston has a 24.8% chance of making the playoffs, per Fangraphs. It has a 23.7% chance to clinch a Wild Card spot and 1.1% chance to win the AL East.
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AL Wild Card Standings (top 3 make it)
1. Rays 65-44, +5 ahead: (96.8% chance to make playoffs, 41.9% chance to clinch Wild Card, 54.9% chance to win AL East)
2. Astros 60-47, +1 ahead: (78.5% chance to make playoffs, 28.6% chance to clinch Wild Card, 49.9% chance to clinch AL West)
3. Toronto 59-48, —: (72.7% chance to make playoffs, 62.3% chance to clinch Wild Card, 10.4% chance to clinch AL East)
4. Red Sox 56-50, 2 ½ behind: (24.8% chance to make playoffs, 23.7% chance to clinch Wild Card, 1.1% chance to clinch AL East)
5. Angels 56-51, 3 behind: 17.6% chance to make playoffs, 13.6% chance to clinch Wild Card, 4.0% chance to win AL West)
6. Yankees 55-51, 3 ½ behind: (23.7% chance to make playoffs, 22.9% chance to clinch Wild Card, 0.8% chance to clinch AL East)
6. Mariners 55-51, 3 ½ behind: (18.8% chance to make playoffs, 13.5% chance to clinch Wild Card, 5.3% chance to clinch AL West)
7. Guardians, 53-54, 6 behind: 27.2% chance to make playoffs, 0.2 chance to clinch Wild Card, 27% chance to clinch AL Central)
Of note, the Rays have better odds to make the playoffs and win the AL East than do the Orioles (65-41) who lead the AL East by 1 ½ games over Tampa. The Orioles have a 91.1% chance to make the playoffs, including a 58.3% chance to clinch the Wild Card and 32.8% chance to clinch the AL East.
The Astros also have better odds to make the playoffs and win the AL West than do the division-leading Rangers (60-46). Texas has a 75.6% chance to make the playoffs, including a 40.7% chance to win the division and a 34.9% chance at the Wild Card.
The AL Central-leading Twins have a 71.4% chance to make the playoffs, including a 71.2% to win the division and 0.2% chance to clinch a Wild Card.
AL East standings
1. Orioles (65-41, .613 winning percentage)
2. Rays (65-44, .596 winning percentage, 1 ½ behind)
3. Blue Jays (59-48, .551 winning percentage, 6 ½ behind)
4. Red Sox (56-50, .528 winning percentage, 9 behind)
5. New York 55-51, .519 winning percentage, 10 behind)
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Manager Alex Cora was asked Wednesday about buying vs. selling and how his team has set itself up for Aug. 1. Cora pointed to two metrics that can be used to determine trade deadline direction.
“Something I noticed, people use playoff odds a lot,” Cora said. “Sometimes they use run differential. There is not too much talk about run differential. And today (Wednesday) I saw the run differential and we’re up there with the big ones. So it’s up to you to see if we’re sellers or buyers, whatever. I feel like we’ve got a good baseball team and we’re right in the hunt. At the same time, organizations act differently around this time.”
Run differential leaders: Braves (+148), Rangers (+145), Rays (+139), Dodgers (+88), Padres (+62), Astros (+59), Cubs (+56) and Blue Jays (+51), Orioles (+50) Red Sox (+44), Mariners (+40), Twins (+34), Angels (+28), Giants (+23)