Beryl becomes tropical storm but expected to strengthen over Gulf. See expected impact on Florida
Life-threatening surf, dangerous rip currents associated with Beryl expected along entire US Gulf Coast, including Florida
Beryl has weakened into a strong tropical storm after making landfall near Tulum, Mexico, on the Yucatan Peninsula earlier this morning, according to the National Hurricane Center.
It's not expected to last.
As it enters the Gulf of Mexico, it is expected to strengthen as it heads toward northeastern Mexico and southern Texas. How far north it turns remains uncertain and it's possible Beryl could turn even more to the north and run parallel the coast before making its third landfall along the Middle Texas coast, according to the National Hurricane Center.
➤ Live updates:Is Texas landfall next from Hurricane Beryl?
Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall across portions of northeastern Mexico and southern Texas are expected this weekend.
The National Hurricane Center said there is an increasing risk for hurricane-force winds, life-threatening storm surge and flooding from heavy rainfall for portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas coasts. Storm surge and hurricane watches have been issued for the Texas coast, from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent.
If your holiday weekend plans include a trip to the beach, be aware Beryl is expected to bring strong rip currents along the entire Gulf Coast, including the southern tip of Florida and along the state's entire West Coast and Panhandle.
Large swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach much of the U.S. Gulf Coast by late today, bringing not only dangerous rip currents, but life-threatening surf.
It was the second landfall for Beryl. Four days ago, on July 1, it made its first landfall at 11 a.m. on Carriacou Island, Grenada, as a Category 4 storm with 150-mph winds.
Where is Tulum, Mexico?
Tulum is located about 80 miles south of Cancún or 30 miles west of the southern tip of Cozumel.
Hurricane Beryl storm without precedent. That's not good
While Beryl poses a serious threat to the western Gulf of Mexico this weekend, its implications for the season ahead are also sobering, according to Dr. Ryan Truchelut, chief meteorologist at WeatherTiger. Truchelut works with the USA TODAY Network-Florida to provide the latest storm information Florida residents need.
Hurricane Beryl:Why a storm without precedent signals bad season ahead | WeatherTiger
"When Beryl peaked at Category 5 intensity on Tuesday, it became not only the earliest Category 5 in Atlantic history, but both the strongest June and strongest July hurricane on record."
This is especially remarkable given that any kind of early-season tropical development is rare in the eastern Atlantic, Truchelut said.
"In the last 150 years, there are 10 seasons in which a hurricane formed in the Main Development Region before August: 2021, 2020, 2018, 2008, 2005, 1996, 1961, 1933, 1926, and 1887. All of those years were above-normal hurricane seasons, averaging almost double the intensity of a normal season."
What does that mean?
"You should do the things you can do now to prepare before the inevitable cone-panic hits. So, trim those trees, know where you would go if you need to evacuate, and make sure your hurricane kits are in good order, " Truchelut said.
AccuWeather forecasters warn Beryl could stall over Texas coast
At this time, "AccuWeather meteorologists continue to warn of the potential for widespread flooding rainfall and the likelihood of damaging winds, storm surge flooding and perhaps tornadoes," as Beryl moves inland over Texas.
There are several factors that could affect the timing of the storm's landfall, including changes in speed, whether Beryl stalls in the Gulf of Mexico and easing of wind shear.
"Beryl could stall or turn more to the north, paralleling the coast at the last minute before landfall as steering breezes decrease," AccuWeather forecasters said.
AccuWeather meteorologists are also warning of the storm slowing and possibly stalling over Texas. Beryl has already slowed from 20 mph to 15 mph as it neared Mexico and is expected to slow even more on its way to the Lonestar State.
One thing that is certain is that waters in the Gulf are warm, which should allow Beryl to regain hurricane intensity it lost passing over the Yucatan Peninsula.
Spaghetti models: Where will Hurricane Beryl go next?
Special note about spaghetti models: Illustrations include an array of forecast tools and models, and not all are created equal. The Hurricane Center uses only the top four or five highest performing models to help make its forecasts.
How could Hurricane Beryl affect Florida?
Large swells generated by Beryl are expected to reach much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. — including all of Florida's West Coast and Panhandle — by late today. The swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Watches, warnings issued across Florida
Hurricane Beryl: What you need to know
- Location: 35 miles east-southeast of Progreso, Mexico; 610 miles east-southeast of Brownsville, Texas
- Maximum sustained winds: 65 mph
- Movement: west-northwest at 15 mph
- Pressure: 989 mb
Watches and warnings issued for Hurricane Beryl
For an explanation of what the watches and warnings mean, scroll to the bottom of this story.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch is in effect for the following:
- Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent
- The northeastern coast from mainland Mexico from Barra el Mezquital to the mouth of the Rio Grande
Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch is in effect for the following:
- Texas coast from the mouth of the Rio Grande northward to Sargent
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning is in effect for the following:
- The coast of the Yucatan Peninsula of Mexico west of Cabo Catoche to Campeche
Hurricane Beryl: Here's latest information on strength, forecast path
At 5 p.m. EDT, the center of Tropical Storm Beryl was located near latitude 21.2 North, longitude 89.2 West.
Beryl is moving toward the west-northwest near 15 mph. A west-northwestward motion is expected through tonight, with the center forecast to emerge over the southwestern Gulf of Mexico during the next few hours.
A turn toward the northwest is expected on Saturday, with the center of Beryl expected to approach the western Gulf coast late Sunday and Sunday night. Maximum sustained winds have decreased to near 65 mph with higher gusts.
Continued weakening is expected during the next few hours as Beryl crosses the Yucatan Peninsula. Re-intensification is expected once the center moves back over the Gulf of Mexico, and Beryl is forecast to regain hurricane status on Sunday.
Tropical-storm-force winds extend outward up to 105 miles from the center.
How strong is Hurricane Beryl and where is it going?
Key messages from the National Hurricane Center: What you need to know about Hurricane Beryl
- There is an increasing risk of damaging hurricane-force winds and life-threatening storm surge in portions of northeastern Mexico and the lower and middle Texas Coast late Sunday and Monday where Hurricane and Storm Surge Watches have been issued. Additional watches may be required tonight or early Saturday. Interests in these areas should follow any advice given by local officials.
- Flash and urban flooding are possible across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas from Sunday through the middle of next week.
- Rip currents will cause life-threatening beach conditions through the weekend across much of the Gulf Coast. Beachgoers should heed warning flags and the advice of lifeguards and local officials before venturing into the water.
- Strong winds, storm surge, and heavy rainfall will continue over northern portions of the Yucatan Peninsula this evening.
Current forecast: How strong is Hurricane Beryl expected to get?
- Currently: 65 mph, inland
- 12 hours: 60 mph, over water
- 24 hours: 65 mph
- 36 hours: 70 mph
- 48 hours: 75 mph
- 60 hours: 80 mph
- 72 hours: 90 mph, at coast
- 96 hours: 35 mph, inland
- 120 hours: 30 mph, post-tropical/inland
What impact could Hurricane Beryl have and what areas could be affected?
- WIND: Tropical storm conditions are occurring over portions of the northern Yucatan Peninsula and should spread westward along the Gulf coast of the peninsula for the next several hours.
- Hurricane conditions are possible in the hurricane watch area along the western Gulf coast by late Sunday, and tropical storm conditions are possible in the watch area on Sunday.
- STORM SURGE: The combination of storm surge and tide will cause normally dry areas near the coast to be flooded by rising waters moving inland from the shoreline. The water could reach the following heights above ground somewhere in the indicated areas if the peak surge occurs at the time of high tide:
- Baffin Bay, TX to Sargent, TX: 3-5 ft
- Corpus Christi Bay: 3-5 ft
- Matagorda Bay: 3-5 ft
- Mouth of the Rio Grande, TX to Baffin Bay, TX: 2-4 ft
- The deepest water will occur along the immediate coast near and to the right of the center, where the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves. Surge-related flooding depends on the relative timing of the surge and the tidal cycle, and can vary greatly over short distances. For information specific to your area, please see products issued by your local National Weather Service forecast office.
- Storm surge could raise water levels by as much as 1 to 3 feet above ground level in areas of onshore winds along the west and north coasts of the Yucatan Peninsula in the tropical storm warning area. Near the coast, the surge will be accompanied by large and destructive waves.
- RAINFALL: Through today Beryl is expected to produce rainfall totals of 4 to 6 inches, with localized amounts of 10 inches, across the Yucatan Peninsula, with scattered instances of flash flooding anticipated.
- Heavy rainfall of 5 to 10 inches with localized amounts of 15 inches is expected across portions of the Texas Gulf Coast and eastern Texas beginning late Sunday through the middle of next week. This rainfall is expected to produce areas of flash and urban flooding.
- SURF: Large swells generated by Beryl are currently impacting portions of the coast of Cuba, the Cayman Islands, and the Yucatan Peninsula. The swells are expected to reach eastern Mexico and much of the Gulf Coast of the U.S. by late today. These swells are expected to cause life-threatening surf and rip current conditions.
Interactive map: What tropical storms, hurricanes have impacted your area in the past?
What do the watches and warnings from NHC mean?
What is storm surge?Graphics explain the deadly weather event
Hurricane warning: A hurricane warning means that hurricane conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area. A warning is typically issued 36 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous. Preparations to protect life and property should be rushed to completion.
Hurricane watch: A hurricane watch means that hurricane conditions are possible within the watch area. A watch is typically issued 48 hours before the anticipated first occurrence of tropical-storm-force winds, conditions that make outside preparations difficult or dangerous.
Tropical storm warning: A tropical storm warning means that tropical storm conditions are expected somewhere within the warning area within 36 hours.
Tropical storm watch: An announcement that sustained winds of 39 to 73 mph are possible within the specified area within 48 hours in association with a tropical, subtropical, or post-tropical cyclone.
Storm surge warning: A storm surge warning means there is a danger of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations. This is a life-threatening situation. Persons located within these areas should take all necessary actions to protect life and property from rising water and the potential for other dangerous conditions. Follow evacuation and other instructions from local officials.
Storm surge watch: A storm surge watch means there is a possibility of life-threatening inundation, from rising water moving inland from the coastline, in the indicated locations during the next 48 hours.