It's July 4, and that means fireworks, independence, hot dogs and, of course, baseball. Here's three picks we like today.
Play 1: Toronto Blue Jays vs. Houston Astros -- Under 8.5 runs (even) ESPN BET
This is a clear matchup play in Toronto this afternoon, as both pitchers -- Framber Valdez for the Astros, Chris Bassitt for the Blue Jays -- have borderline pristine matchups against the opposing projected lineups.
Starting with Valdez: The lefty sinkerballer is getting ground balls at a 60% rate, the Blue Jays' projected lineup has a .101 ISO against the sinker over the last two seasons and only one projected starter -- Davis Schneider -- can muster a fly ball rate over 30% against the pitch.
Forgetting the sinker for a moment, against all pitches, only three Jays have fly ball rates over 30%.
In short: Valdez should get plenty of ground balls today in Toronto, and it's going to be difficult for the Jays to put together big innings.
On the other side of the ledger is Bassitt, who is a punching bag against lefties -- a .209 ISO and .360 wOBA, along with a 12% barrel rate over the last two seasons.
But against righties? Dust off the Cy Young. A .082 ISO, a .257 wOBA and a 4.4% barrel rate.
And while the Astros will probably be sending four lefties to face Bassitt, only one -- Yordan Alvarez -- possesses what one might call major league talent.
It's not going to be a cakewalk for Bassitt, but again, the numbers show he should be able to handle the righties, and as long as Alvarez doesn't take this game over all by his lonesome, Bassitt should cruise.
And assuming those ground balls against Valdez don't find daylight, the under is the obvious play.
Play 2: Chicago Cubs vs. Philadelphia Phillies -- Under 7.5 runs (Even) BetMGM
Another day game, another under.
For starters, this isn't fun Wrigley weather: Temps in the 70s, wind blowing in.
And from there, the pitchers -- Christopher Sanchez for the visiting Phils and Jameson Taillon for the Cubs -- set up well to keep the scoreboard from going all firework-y on us.
Sanchez, another sinkerballer, has been lights-out all year. His 2.41 ERA is not fluky, as his xFIP is 3.00. He's getting soft contact at a 20% rate, and is getting barrelled a mere 4.8% of the time. Also notable: He hasn't given up a single barrel to a lefty this year, which is bonkers.
And while the only lefty in the Cubs projected lineup is Cody Bellinger, the rest of the squad will have to figure out a way to get the ball in the air against Sanchez and his 60% ground ball rate. Outside of Patrick Wisdom, no one in the lineup gets the ball in the air over 30% of the time against lefties, and again, the weather conditions point to the ball staying in the stadium.
On the other side, Taillon is having a fine year on the hill, getting lefties and righties out with equal skill. Overall, he's giving up a .124 ISO and .297 wOBA, along with a 7.6% barrel rate.
And, helpfully for Taillon, he's facing a watered-down Phillies lineup missing Kyle Schwarber and Bryce Harper. Kody Clemons, at .200, has the highest ISO against righties in the projected lineup.
Not exactly scary, as these things go.
The under is the play.
Play 3: Oakland A's vs. Los Angeles Angels -- Angels over 4.5 runs (even) DraftKings
JP Sears might one day be a good pitcher, but in order to do that, the lefty is going to have to figure out a way to get right-handed batters out.
And despite the Angels being without a pretty good right-handed batter in Mike Trout, their lineup is still built to smash lefties.
No less than eight righties are expected to step to the plate this afternoon in Oakland, with seven of them sporting ISOs north of .180 over the course of the last two seasons, and all eight of them with wOBAs north of .329.
Against righties? Over the last two years, Sears is giving up a .214 ISO and a .338 wOBA, along with a 11.6% barrel rate, a 33% hard hit rate and a near-50% fly ball rate.
It's not even as if Sears can depend on getting strikeouts -- a 20% K rate against righties, and the projected Halos lineup comes in with an 18% K rate.
Things simply line up nicely for the Angels this afternoon.
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Uncommon Knowledge
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
Newsweek is committed to challenging conventional wisdom and finding connections in the search for common ground.
