For Syracuse, it’s largely about getting back to its defensive roots

Editor’s note: This offseason The Athletic is again exploring the college basketball landscape with in-depth examinations of 75 key programs. This story is a part of that continuing series.

The last decade or so of Syracuse hoops could have been coach Jim Boeheim’s best: a stellar stretch of winning early in the 2010s, with five Sweet 16 appearances and a pair of Final Fours. But it also could have been the program’s worst during the coach’s 44-year tenure. Bear in mind SU hasn’t finished in the season-end Top 25 in six years, which represents a deviation from the norm. And including their incomplete 2020 season, on pace to end with an NIT appearance, the Orange wouldn’t have played in the NCAA Tournament in three of the past six seasons. Many programs would gladly bat .500. Not Syracuse, whose rabid fan base maintains high expectations for reaching the Big Dance every year. That’s the panoramic view of Syracuse hoops.

The question, then, becomes: When will the Orange break through and reach the days of hanging back in the Top 25? An analysis of what Syracuse is losing (Elijah Hughes) and what it’s gaining (transfer wing Alan Griffin) leads us to believe SU is still at least a year away from being its old self. In the way-too-early preseason ACC rankings from The Athletic, Syracuse checked in at 11th out of 15 teams. That may be harsh, because SU returns five of its six top players and brings in one of the best wing transfers on the market. But Syracuse loses Hughes along with his 19 points per game. If the returning starters don’t make big strides, many believe it could be another year on the bubble. If they do make the necessary jumps, starting with backcourt mates Joseph Girard and Buddy Boeheim, Syracuse could sneak back into the Big Dance.

“I’m very hopeful for next season and a better defense,” Jim Boeheim says. He’s referencing what’s quiet and unappealing, but defense is the essence of the kind of team Syracuse is going to be. Last season Syracuse was an 18-14 bubble team because it struggled to defend and rebound. The defensive efficiency rank (116th) and offensive rebounding percentage rank (331st), per KenPom.com, were abysmal. But basically everybody who mattered last season, sans Hughes, is back. The last time the Orange returned so much production, in 2017-18, they ran the fifth-best defense in the country. With experience comes maturation. At Syracuse, that’s the hope for the season that lies ahead, in whatever form it comes.

The big question

Simple. Can the defense vastly improve? SU is coming off what might have been its worst defensive season in its 2-3 zone era, dating 20-plus years. You know the drill: Second chances happened too frequently in tight games. At times, stops were hard to get, from improper closeouts to poor weakside help. The problems were simple, repetitive and not hard to pinpoint. But they proved to be much harder to fix.

A survey of many of the returning players unveils what’s on the mind of the Orange when it comes to zone improvements. “The biggest thing,” Girard says, “is focus.” Buddy Boeheim, the player positioned next to Girard up top, points out that some of the issues were in part his fault, and it’s on the whole lineup to make better zone reads. He hopes running up a steep hill near his family’s Fayetteville, N.Y., home during the pandemic will result in increased quickness to reach shooters and disrupt passing lanes.

On the bottom, forward Quincy Guerrier, last year’s sixth man, says the growing pains for his freshman class were enormous. He describes a haze that sometimes came over his head. The reads, where to be: It became challenging, especially as opponents changed their offensive approach. “I was really struggling in the zone at the beginning of the year,” he says. “The way I was closing out, if I’m on defense, was tough. Sometimes it’s confusing. If you don’t communicate, everyone can be lost, that’s how they get easy shots. You have to run everywhere. If the ball is dropped in the high post, you have to drop. Low post, they bring the ball back to the top, you have to know where to be, on time.”

Another major issue came inside, still an unproven group with center Bourama Sidibe and forward Marek Dolezaj back for their final seasons. Both admitted to defensive lapses throughout their junior campaigns. Both fell victim to foul trouble, mostly because they were slow to help or to read where to be when the ball entered the high post or the short corner. In turn, they were late to meet the ball and therefore picked up careless fouls. “We have to be smarter,” Dolezaj says. “I was too antsy. Just gotta do the smart thing. Don’t reach. If you know you won’t get it, you won’t get it. Just keep the hands up. Don’t be scared. Hustle plays and having good court vision can go a long way.”

What this team lacks in star power it will have in versatility. This should help the defense make adjustments in real time. “Our defense struggled last year,” Jim Boeheim says. “We just weren’t a great defensive team. With experienced guys back, I’m hopeful for better defense overall. I think experience will help. We have to continue to work on the zone. We spend a lot of time on it. We have to spend a lot more time on it.”

Roster analysis

Guards

Begin with probably the best all-around player from last year’s rotation: point guard Joseph Girard, who will run the offense and hoist plenty of shots from deep. He averaged 12.4 points and 3.5 assists per game a season ago, and those numbers will only grow with experience. Some of his shots, particularly deep 3s early in the shot clock, were questionable. At other times, he showed his range and injected energy in the Orange with a hot hand. The next steps in his maturation are to become more efficient from 3-point range and bolster the top of the zone. “People don’t understand the freshman year he had,” Boeheim says. “A freshman year like he had is really good. He showed he can score a lot and make plays for others.”

Says Girard: “With Elijah gone, losing the best player in the ACC, Buddy will step up. I have to step up too. I wasn’t picking the right spots last year. Coach B told me that. In high school, scoring 50 points a game, I had to do it. In college, I was picking the wrong time, the wrong spot to get into isolation. I need to figure out when to do it and when not to.”

Shooting guard Buddy Boeheim is the team’s top returning scorer (15.7 points per game). He shot 37 percent from deep and became one of the most improved players in the ACC. And he needs to improve even still. “Basically, Buddy has to become Tyler Herro for us,” one source close to the team said in April. Boeheim’s ability to hit shots is evident. But can he dribble and create more? More important, can he defend? As a junior, Boeheim knows he needs to answer those questions, writing in a first-person essay in The Athletic in April: “I want to be a complete player. I want to make more plays for my teammates. I want to get to the free-throw line more often. I also want to become a better athlete, working on speed and quickness, to become a better defender. The goal is always to make the NCAA Tournament.”

Then there’s the most versatile of the three guards: freshman Kadary Richmond, who at 6-6 can play the one, two or three. His size and strength could make him a wing, although he knows he needs to improve his shooting consistency to have a big impact. Having a ballhandler in Richmond who can anchor the bottom of the zone when needed is a plus. He could fill in for Girard and run some point, setting up others and attacking the rim or play off the ball and still keep help-side defenders on their toes. He’s going to come off the bench in some role, most likely for about 10 to 20 minutes per game. The rest depends on the strides he makes into fall practices. “I love to attack and create havoc in the passing lanes,” Richmond says. “Shooting is the one place I need to grow to be an all-around player.”

Dolezaj had a solid junior season, but Boeheim believes he can be even better. (Melina Myers / USA Today)

Wings

The best player in this group might be Alan Griffin, the junior transfer from Illinois who is an elite shooter. Assuming he gets a waiver for immediate eligibility, he figures to slot in as the starting three, though he could play some minutes as a two-guard. If he isn’t eligible, sophomore forward Quincy Guerrier will crack the starting lineup. Last season the 6-7 native of Montreal averaged 6.9 points and 5.3 rebounds per game, underwhelming numbers for an athletic player with NBA aspirations. He played under 20 minutes per game, so an increased workload should drive up his production. Guerrier believes he can be much better. “I’m still building my confidence,” he says. “I need to relax more. I need to believe in myself. Sometimes I think too much. Next year I’m going to hit shots. I know it.”

Guerrier promises he can shoot well. What we know is last season he struggled to do so. Where he thrived was closer to the rim, scoring on put-backs and cuts. He could score in bunches, succeed on the boards and beat opponents with his high motor.

Another tall, lean forward is senior Marek Dolezaj, who has started each of the past two seasons and figures to increase his numbers (10.4 points, 6.4 rebounds) again. His major stats nearly doubled from his sophomore season, and now SU needs him to boost them some more. At best, he figures to be a 15-and-8 type player. Can he hit jump shots to round out his game? “If he can shoot, that will make a big difference in his game,” Jim Boeheim says. “The one thing I’m confident in is that he works hard.” Dolezaj could become the team’s third or fourth option offensively if he gets going. “Coach Boeheim told me I had a pretty good season,” Dolezaj says. “But he said he knows I can do much better.”

The other two wings may not see the floor much, if at all, less because of ability and more because of space. Historically, Syracuse plays seven or eight players. Which brings us to forwards Woody Newton and Robert Braswell, long fours who can shoot a little in the midrange. After considering a transfer, Braswell is back for his redshirt sophomore season. He has hardly played, so the sample size is small, but Boeheim remains bullish on his potential, and noted he has put on 25 pounds over the last year. Much of Braswell’s playing time is dependent on Griffin’s status. If he’s eligible, it’s hard to envision a path for Braswell. But if Guerrier starts and Griffin sits out the year, Braswell could work his way into a backup four role. The other option would be Newton, a freshman from the Washington, D.C. area. His defense is ahead of his offense, which may bode well for him. Could Newton provide minutes at the four for defensive reasons? It’s possible. He can drive and pass, though creating his own shot or scoring may not come until his second or third season.

Bigs

For years, Syracuse’s average height has been near the top of the KenPom ratings, though SU hasn’t had a whole lot to show for it. The Orange are counting on a breakthrough. Begin with the returning starting center, Bourama Sidibe. Which center will Sidibe be in his senior year? The Sidibe who spent much of the year in foul trouble, with low numbers? Or the Sidibe who in March was an interior presence and scoring addition to one of the country’s better offenses? Sidibe says he has been impatient defensively which leads to silly fouls. Even when healthy, his upside is not that of an All-ACC big. But he’s mobile and athletic, and he can use his quickness to score on put-backs and layups.

Sidibe averaged 6.0 points and 7.6 rebounds per game last season, decent numbers, but not enough. Syracuse clearly has been outmatched inside and lost a handful of games because of it. Offensive improvement hinges on interior scoring, in some form, and that hinges largely on Sidibe. “Bourama played great in the final couple of weeks,” Boeheim says. “That’s the player we think he is. That’s what he can be for us. I think he’ll get better.”

Just as important is whomever will be Sidibe’s backup. It appears Jesse Edwards is the least likely of the three candidates. The 6-11 native of Amsterdam is having trouble getting back to the U.S. due to travel restrictions related to COVID-19, and there’s no telling if he’ll be able on campus this season. It would, then, make sense for him to redshirt.

That would leave Syracuse with two options: John Bol Ajak, who redshirted last season, and Frank Anselem, who will be a freshman. Both are raw. But one will be the backup center, unless Boeheim elects to slot Dolezaj as the backup five and rotate some combo of Guerrier, Newton and Braswell at the four. With Ajak, Syracuse hopes it someday will have a productive big who can alter shots, score and produce in the pick-and-roll game. He has decent touch on his jumper. He’ll need work learning the zone. As has been the case with Paschal Chukwu and Sidibe, patience is a theme with SU bigs. Ajak isn’t explosive nor is he a strong athlete, so timing and finesse will be keys in whether he earns minutes.

In June, Syracuse signed Anselem, a late addition to the 2020 class. He has some strength and brings length and athleticism, but he needs to fill out his frame. Most of his scoring in high school came on dump-off passes he dunked. His offensive skill set isn’t developed either, though with a thin frontcourt, Syracuse may have room for him. He’s a legitimate candidate for the backup center job. Another scenario would be a 50/50 split between Ajak and Anselem, providing both some (albeit limited) minutes while giving Sidibe a break.

If eligible, Griffin gives the Orange another much-needed offensive threat. (Don Banks / USA Today)

Spotlight on: Alan Griffin

Boeheim says he didn’t need long to understand the player he might be getting in Griffin. He watched his tape for a few minutes and knew the former Illinois wing would be a nice fit at the three. Griffin, who shot 42 percent from deep last year, averaged 8.5 points and 4.5 rebounds in 18 minutes per game. Given he’s a potential starter, his minutes should jump to around 30 per game, which would lead one to believe his production will increase as well. There’s optimism Griffin will be eligible right away because of the pandemic and a move closer to his Ossining, N.Y., hometown.

“He’s really good and he does a lot really well,” Boeheim says. “His numbers are incredible for playing 18 minutes per game. I don’t really know of too many players who can put together those numbers in 18 minutes. He’ll really help us.”

In bringing on Griffin, Syracuse would have another shooter to complement Girard and Boeheim. The 6-5 shooting guard wants to play big minutes and start. He’s a good rebounder for a guard, he blocks shots and he can defend. (At Illinois, he guarded the one, two, three and four positions.) But will he learn the zone well in his first year? That’s usually the biggest question with talented transfers.

At Illinois, many of his 3-pointers resulted from catch-and-shoot chances through off-ball screens, but Griffin also showed an ability to create plays off the bounce. Figure he’ll generate shots off his dribble at times, but he’ll mostly run off curls and down screens for open 3s on the wing. He could run at the one- or two-guard for brief stretches, more versatility to a very solid backcourt/wing mix. Despite his high percentages, Griffin can be a streaky shooter. He’s a volume shooter who went stretches at Illinois without hitting shots. Then he’d erupt for three in a row.

Something else about Griffin’s addition won’t show up in the box score, but he could really help on team full of quieter personalities. Griffin is a chest-beating player who doesn’t shy from contact. He attacks. On the off chance he isn’t eligible, Griffin will ride the bench, then project to slot into the starting lineup in the fall of 2021. But the more likely scenario is one in which he plays 30-plus minutes, shoots a lot from the wing and rebounds. And plays with an edge. Syracuse will happily take all of that.

Recruiting

Griffin is the best get. The other three newcomers are freshmen. That class ranks No. 38 nationally and No. 8 in the ACC. SU has one top-100 recruit in Richmond. The numbers fall in line with the program averages over the past five years, with the 247Sports Composite rankings indicating the Orange averaged the 18th-best recruiting class in the country from 2013 to ’16. Since then, the number has fallen to 37th.

Boeheim believes the newcomers will play, especially Richmond. Newton brings length and could be a rotation player by his sophomore season. Anselem brings athleticism to the four or five position. He may need a year or two to crack the rotation, though anything’s on the table given the recent troubles at the center position.

Looking ahead, Syracuse has received a verbal commitment from four-star forward Benny Williams in the 2021 class. Dior Johnson, the program’s best recruit since Carmelo Anthony, is rumored to be considering reclassifying into the ‘21 class. His arrival next year would be a major plus to the Orange. Then there are the other top-50 players Syracuse has offered. The recent recruiting push has been aggressively aimed toward top talent, contrary to the last few years in which SU has enjoyed better success landing three- and four-star players and hoping they develop.

Schedule analysis

The highlight of the nonconference slate to date is a Dec. 19 game against LSU in the Gotham Classic at Madison Square Garden. The Orange have also announced home games against UMBC, Green Bay and Jacksonville State. The ACC will resume nonconference season openers. The Orange most likely will play a few area schools, including Cornell, Colgate and Buffalo. The Orange may play an HBCU on Dr. Martin Luther King Day, per a source.

As for conference play, Syracuse plays the following teams twice: Boston College, Clemson, Louisville, North Carolina, N.C. State and Pittsburgh. SU has fared well against BC, Pitt and Clemson, so six combined games there provides opportunities to rack up a handful wins. Road-only games are against Duke, Georgia Tech, Virginia and Wake Forest. Not having to play Duke and Virginia twice is helpful for the Orange’s postseason prospects. There are still a number of fledgling teams in the conference, including Wake Forest, and Syracuse can move into the top half of the conference just by beating the teams it can beat. Fair enough. But there are no guarantees against Duke, North Carolina, Virginia, Florida State and Louisville.

The ceiling

The Cuse returns to the NCAA Tournament and possibly makes a run to the second weekend. The Orange take care of the league games they’re supposed to and get hot in March. They shoot well, the defense returns to where it should be (top 30 efficiency) and Guerrier, Richmond and the backcourt capitalize on all of the shots available in Hughes’ absence. “To be good,” Girard says, “we all have to take on another role.” He’s spot-on. Just because Syracuse returns five of its top six players from a mediocre team doesn’t mean it’ll be considerably better. Individual player improvement is critical for the rest of the offseason.

The floor

This team again struggles to defend and rebound, which makes for some tough nights in the ACC. Griffin isn’t eligible, and the returning core don’t make the big leaps they need to. Sidibe is a nonfactor offensively, the Orange don’t have a whole lot inside, and shooting is just OK. Selection Sunday becomes a sweat-it-out affair.

Final report

Boeheim isn’t sure his team will be much better shooting the ball from deep range, even if Griffin is eligible. Otherwise, Guerrier and Dolezaj haven’t proven to be shooters, so the bulk of the 3-point production will come from Griffin, Girard and Boeheim. The challenge offensively lies in attacking the basket and scoring inside, at least to somewhat complement the perimeter scoring. That’s the biggest question mark with the offense. Sidibe, Dolezaj, Guerrier, even the guards: They must find ways to score in the paint.

A measured projection for this team finds it on par with the past few teams, which didn’t have high-end recruits running the show. In the last half-decade, SU hasn’t blown anyone away. Since 2014, the Orange have been solid, not great. But they did usually hang in just about every game, kept things close and sometimes surprised top-10 opponents. They won when they needed to and made things work. When they earn a March Madness berth, the second weekend becomes a distinct possibility. By most accounts, this squad appears to have a similar makeup. Until top recruits arrive in 2021 and ’22, Syracuse will have to embrace that.

(Top photo: Joe Robbins / Getty)