MLB trade grades: With Lucas Giolito, Angels get the best pure rental starter on the market

By Marc Carig, Tim Britton and Andy McCullough

The trade:

Angels get: Lucas Giolito, RHP; Reynaldo López, RHP

White Sox get: Edgar Quero, C; Ky Bush, LHP

Marc Carig: We’re here to grade the trade, not the strategic direction. So let’s set aside the question of whether the Angels would have been better served flipping Shohei Ohtani, potentially the greatest rental of all-time, for a decent haul of prospects. Wise or not, owner Arte Moreno clearly went in the other direction, thus fulfilling his franchise’s destiny as America’s Wackiest Buyers. The Angels are going for it, baby. And if that’s the choice, well, there could have been worse outcomes than securing one of the best pitchers available at the deadline.

Giolito was surely coveted by other clubs. Plenty of teams need starting pitching in this market, and many of those teams had the prospect capital to make the move. But it was the Angels who acted with aggression to fill what’s been an obvious need. In Giolito, the Angels get an accomplished arm and a workhorse to pair next to Ohtani atop a rotation that required some help. On the same night that reports emerged of the team’s intent to keep Ohtani and enter the market as buyers, the Angels consummated a deal that netted both Giolito and reliever López. Though López hasn’t been great (4.29 ERA in 43 appearances), his presence helps protect a bullpen that has been volatile.

All-Star RHP Lucas Giolito is being traded from the Chicago White Sox to the Los Angeles Angels in return for top prospects — catcher Edgar Quero and left-handed pitcher Ky Bush, the White Sox announced Wednesday.

The Burbank, California native is headed home. pic.twitter.com/Q5kFBGbqpE

— The Athletic (@TheAthletic) July 27, 2023

The price was not insignificant. Quero and Bush represented the Angels’ top two prospects. This could be problematic for a team that still has other needs — for example, they could still use another reliever — but does not have as much capital as others in the market. Of course, the risk could bring a reward. Recently, my colleague Tim Britton found two teams in the last decade who chose to approach the deadline as buyers while in a similar position in the standings as the Angels. The first was the 2015 Mets followed by the 2022 Phillies. Both won pennants.

The White Sox did well with Quero, 20, a switch-hitting catcher out of Cuba who has been the youngest player at his level, which is currently Double A. He projects as a major-league regular at a demanding position. Bush, 23, is a 6-foot-6 lefty who was the Angels’ second-round selection in 2021. The White Sox improved the quality of their prospects by packaging a relief arm. It’s precisely what a team should be doing when they’re kicking off the process of retooling.

Angels: B-
White Sox: A-

Tim Britton: On the eve of the German invasion of Belgium in 1914, the Baron de Bassompierre summed up the feelings of his fellow Belgians: “If we are to be crushed,” he said, “let us be crushed gloriously.”

That’s the animating principle behind the Angels’ decisions on Wednesday night. Backed into a corner best described somewhere between “suboptimal” and “downright impossible” by a years-long inability to win with two transcendent stars, the Halos have decided to make one last stand with Ohtani. In adding Giolito and López, they fill two of their holes at a significant prospect cost. They still remain underdogs to reach the postseason.

The Angels absolutely needed a competent starter, and more than likely needed a very good starter. Absent the potentially complicating opt-out clauses of Marcus Stroman and Eduardo Rodriguez, Giolito was as straightforward a rental as anyone on the market. He owns a relatively reliable track record, and while the Angels would have ideally landed a starter with more than two months of team control, Giolito is from Southern California, of course, so maybe this is a prelude to a longer relationship. López was outstanding in his full-time transition to the pen last year and has been pedestrian this year, mainly because he’s walked twice as many guys and yielded six more homers than in 2022. He, too, will be useful for the Angels, though to what degree depends on him.

They gave up a lot for them. Credit to The Athletic’s Sam Blum for identifying Quero earlier in the week as the likeliest piece to go elsewhere if the Angels did buy, and Bush is a recent second-round pick who’s a few years away.

Angels: B
White Sox: A-

Andy McCullough: The phrase “moral hazard” comes to mind when considering the Angels emptying an already threadbare farm system on this quixotic quest for a wild-card spot this autumn. But you know what two other words come to mind? “Shohei” and “Ohtani.” Which leads to a different phrase: “moral obligation.” At least until October, the Angels plan to employ Ohtani, and Moreno has decided to maximize his franchise’s postseason chances, however remote. So the window is right here, right now, consequences be damned.

And so it is that the Angels shipped out two of their best prospects — an admittedly low bar — for Giolito, a mid-rotation starter who looks bound for some regression, and López, a reliever with a 4.29 ERA. As Britton mentioned, Giolito was the best pure rental starter on the market. He may benefit from leaving the White Sox, where little has gone well during the past two seasons. Even so, Giolito’s peripheral markers — all the knobs on Baseball Savant that were red in 2021 but blue in 2023 — are alarming. The Angels might have bought the dip. But, hey, when you’re a buyer, you buy what you can. López’s strikeout numbers have jumped in 2023 but so has his walk rate. He’s a reliever. Who knows if it’ll work out.

But, look, they decided to go for it. This is what going for it looks like. It’s going to be a heck of a ride.

Chicago received value in volume as the team plots a rebuild. Adding López sweetened the deal, which is commendable. Getting a package of elite prospects for Giolito, given all his red flags, was unlikely, but it looks like the White Sox did well. They’re expected to deal pitchers like Lance Lynn and Joe Kelly in the coming days.

Angels: B
White Sox: B+

(Photo of Lucas Giolito: Sarah Stier / Getty Images)