Kutter Crawford has case to stick in Red Sox rotation, but it’s not up to him to decide

BOSTON — Standing on the mound in the fifth inning Sunday, Kutter Crawford had at least some statistical claim to being the Boston Red Sox ace. He was through 4 2/3 scoreless innings, and for the moment, he was the Red Sox’s leader in ERA, WHIP and had a better strikeout-to-walk ratio than everyone on the staff except for Chris Martin and Chris Sale, each of whom had thrown at least 20 fewer innings.

That’s how good Crawford had been this season.

But two pitches after a mid-inning conference on the mound, Crawford gave up a go-ahead, two-run double that ultimately cost the Red Sox in a 3-2 loss to the Chicago White Sox. The game was called after six innings because of rain. Crawford walked two batters in that pivotal fifth inning, including the No. 9 hitter with two outs after an 0-2 count. The go-ahead double was hit by Elvis Andrus, the first batter Crawford was facing for a third time.

All of which helps explain why Crawford’s future is still unclear. He’s pitched well this season, probably well enough to earn his keep in the big leagues next year, but whether Crawford’s a starter or a reliever is still to be determined.

And the Red Sox still don’t know who’s going to make that decision.

“Prepare as a starter until somebody says we’re going to a different route,” manager Alex Cora said. “I think that’s the way we have to do it right now.”

Cora said that same logic will apply to Tanner Houck and Garrett Whitlock. Cora expects they, too, will head into the offseason as starting pitchers until and unless Chaim Bloom’s replacement as head of baseball operations tells them they’re going into the bullpen.

“That’s the reality of where we’re at,” Cora said. “We know the players. We know what we’re going to do (at the end of the season). We’re going through the whole process as normal as possible. We have our meetings, we talk about the season, the offseason plans, what you need to do — and then, you know, at one point, somebody’s going to take over.”

Even though his team lead in ERA was short-lived Sunday, Crawford’s already given Bloom’s replacement a lot to think about. When pitching coach Dave Bush went to the mound in the fifth, Crawford had recorded 14 outs without a run, momentarily lowering his ERA to 4.04, the best on the team among pitchers with at least 80 innings. But Crawford had two on, and the double brought both around to score. He was charged with another run in the sixth, pushing his season ERA back up to 4.23, second best on the team behind Brayan Bello. Crawford’s WHIP is now in between Sale’s and Nick Pivetta’s (but all three are basically identical).

“I do believe with him, there’s upside there,” Cora said. “Pitchability, too. He gets it. … I’m very excited about him as far as like finishing the season healthy and going into the offseason attacking the things he wants to do and see what we have next year.”

Kutter Crawford. ⛽️⛽️

3Ks thru 2. pic.twitter.com/ZbbLNslTqy

— Rob Friedman (@PitchingNinja) September 24, 2023

Crawford changed his diet last offseason, and he said this winter’s focus will be on strengthening his lower half. His numbers have been significantly worse in the late innings as he’s struggled to pitch deep into games with any consistency. He was dominant the first few innings Sunday but ran into trouble in the middle and was pulled after 5 1/3. Crawford and Cora each said he should have done a better job attacking hitters in the fifth, and both said it should be a learning experience that Crawford carries into opportunities ahead.

“Obviously, I don’t try to get too far ahead of myself,” Crawford said. “But I feel like I should have an opportunity as a starter. So, hearing (Cora say to prepare as a starter) makes me want to work harder and focus on making those adjustments in the offseason and really hitting the gym hard.”

The Red Sox should be able to bolster next year’s rotation through free agency. Starting pitching is a strength of an otherwise thin free-agent class, and the Red Sox should have money to spend after resetting their luxury tax penalties this season. Blake Snell, Aaron Nola and Yoshinobu Yamamoto will be available — as will Lucas Giolito, Jordan Montgomery, Sonny Gray and others — and the Red Sox will need only cut a check to sign one or two.

But they’re not going to build a rotation completely from scratch. Bello looks like a mainstay through the end of the decade, Sale has one year left on his contract, and Pivetta is still arbitration eligible. Those three are obvious rotation possibilities for next year.

But what to do with Crawford, Houck and Whitlock is an interesting question. All three have pitched their way into big-league roles of some sort, but what those roles should be is up for debate.

“I have my ideas,” Cora said.

Of course, Cora wouldn’t say what those ideas are beyond believing all three should at least prepare to be starters.

Crawford’s chase rate, walk rate and expected stats as measured by Statcast are in the top 20 to 30 percent of big-league pitchers, and he hasn’t missed a start since moving full time into the rotation at the beginning of June. Cora acknowledged being surprised by Crawford’s durability considering he’s already reached his highest innings total since he was in A ball in 2018.

But, like Houck, Crawford has been quite a bit worse his second time through the order and a lot worse his third time through. Like Whitlock, he’s been statistically better as a reliever than as a starter.

“Stuff-wise, he’s one of the best that we have,” Cora said. “And he has talked about improving a few things in the offseason physically. … The strike throwing is going to become quality strike throwing. It’s not good enough to throw strikes, we have to throw quality strikes.”

The split-finger, Cora said, should be a point of emphasis for Crawford this offseason. That’s a pitch Houck began to throw more often this season when he worked exclusively as a starter (Tuesday will be his 20th start of the year). His dominance the first time through the order and struggles later in games, though, have kept the question of his ultimate role unanswered.

Whitlock, meanwhile, hasn’t had much of an opportunity to answer that question fully. He was coming off substantial hip surgery last offseason when the Red Sox committed to using Whitlock as a full-time starter, but two elbow injuries have derailed that plan. Whitlock is going to finish this season with fewer big-league innings than he had last year, and maybe less than he had as a rookie in 2021. He made just 10 starts, all in the first half. Results were mixed.

“The one thing with Garrett,” Cora said, “he had a major surgery last year. We forget that part, like Tanner (who) had back surgery. So, the offseason wasn’t perfect for those guys. They can actually attack (this) offseason the right way because they’re healthy.”

That gives them at least a chance to stick as starters, but the X-factor isn’t health or performance. It’s the next guy in charge.

(Photo: Brian Fluharty / Getty Images)